INTRODUCTION

• Explanations for the Cold War onset must consider World War II, which was the most destructive conflict in history, leading to immense death, devastation, privation, and disorder.
• Historian Thomas G. Paterson emphasizes that the war was so profound it fundamentally overturned the world, affecting not just economic and political structures but also social and cultural aspects, including families and communities.
• The war disrupted stable politics, traditional wisdom, alliances, and class structures, creating a fertile ground for great power conflicts.
• The resulting instability made the emergence of a conflict between superpowers not just possible, but highly likely.

A world overturned

• Approximately 60 million people lost their lives due to World War II, with two-thirds being noncombatants.
• The Axis states (Germany, Japan, Italy) suffered over 3 million civilian deaths, while the Allies experienced at least 35 million civilian deaths.
• The war’s toll included 10-20% of the populations of the Soviet Union, Poland, and Yugoslavia, and 4-6% of those in Germany, Italy, Austria, Hungary, Japan, and China.
• The magnitude of these losses remains unfathomable even two generations later, with much of Europe in ruins at the war’s end.
• Winston S. Churchill described postwar Europe as a ‘rubble heap, a charnel house, a breeding ground of pestilence and hate’.
• Major cities faced severe devastation: 90% of buildings in Cologne, Düsseldorf, and Hamburg were destroyed; 70% in Vienna; and Warsaw was systematically razed.
• The Soviet Union experienced the most severe losses, with 25 million dead and 25 million homeless, alongside extensive destruction of infrastructure.
• In Japan, 40% of urban areas were destroyed, and cities like Hiroshima and Nagasaki were obliterated by atomic bombs, leaving approximately 9 million homeless.
• The war also caused devastation in China, leading to 4 million Indonesian deaths and a million Indian deaths due to war-induced famine.
• Parts of Southeast Asia like the Philippines experienced destruction, with 80% of Manila’s buildings razed during the final stages of the war.
• The widespread destruction led to the collapse of the 19th-century international order, as noted by US Assistant Secretary of State Dean Acheson.
• Two new superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, emerged, each aiming to establish a new global order.
• Both superpowers recognized the urgent need for restoring authority and stability, not just in war-affected areas but across the broader international system.
• The postwar landscape presented a daunting task, with warnings of potential anarchy due to economic and political unrest.
• The Cold War roots lay in the aftermath of World War II, where a devastated world faced conflicting visions for international order from Washington and Moscow.
• The overthrow of the existing international order led to inherent conflict, especially given the suddenness of the upheaval.
• Tensions and rivalries between the US and Soviet Union emerged as predictable outcomes in this new geopolitical landscape.
• The duration and scope of the Cold War cannot solely be attributed to structural changes; history shows great powers can sometimes find paths to compromise and cooperation.
• The term ‘great power condominium’ describes systems where major powers cooperate to establish a mutually acceptable order.
• Despite initial hopes for cooperation between the US and the Soviet Union, this did not materialize, largely due to their divergent aspirations, needs, histories, governing institutions, and ideologies.
• These differences transformed inevitable tensions into a prolonged, intense confrontation known as the Cold War.

American visions of postwar order

• The United States emerged from World War II with relatively moderate losses, about 400,000 military deaths, which is less than 1% of the overall death toll.
• Unlike other nations, most US civilians experienced prosperity during the war, with the gross domestic product doubling from 1941 to 1945, resulting in rapid wage increases and access to affordable consumer goods.
• President Harry S. Truman noted in March 1945 that the US had become the most powerful nation in the world, reflecting significant military power and international prestige.
• Despite these advantages, uncertainties loomed due to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, which shattered the US illusion of invulnerability and emphasized the need for national security.
• The events of December 7, 1941, punctured the myth of safety that had existed since the early 19th century and foreshadowed the obsession with national security that characterized Cold War foreign policy.
• Military strategists learned that air power had diminished the effectiveness of the US’s geographical protection, necessitating a defense in depth that extended beyond US shores.
• This shift led to the establishment of a global network of US-controlled air and naval bases and the negotiation of military air transit rights, allowing proactive power projection.
• A 1946 list of essential military base sites included locations across the globe, such as Burma, Canada, Cuba, and Iceland, highlighting extensive US military base requirements.
• US military power was deemed essential to the new world order, with an aim to maintain naval and air superiority, Pacific presence, Western hemisphere dominance, and control over defeated Axis powers.
• Atomic monopoly was prioritized to ensure strategic advantage before the Cold War’s onset.
• A core lesson from World War II was the need to prevent any hostile power from gaining control over Eurasia’s resources and population, considered critical to global power balance.
• Fear of another Eurasian takeover emphasized that such an event could destabilize the international system, threatening US security and necessitating increased defense spending and domestic economic adjustments.
• This conviction led to a broad vision of national security encompassing both military and economic stability across Eurasia to protect the US’s political economy of freedom.
• US strategists believed a multilateral economic system was key to post-war stability. They advocated free trade, equal investment access, stable exchange rates, and currency convertibility to prevent the protectionist rivalries of the pre-war era.
• The Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 formalized these goals with the establishment of the IMF and World Bank, promoting global economic stability aligned with US interests.
• American ideals of freedom and prosperity were closely tied to US interests, as it was the world’s top capitalist economy, producing about 50% of global output post-war.
• The Chicago Tribune editorial reflected American confidence and optimism, claiming the world’s fortune lay in the alignment of power and good intentions in the United States.
• This belief in a righteous American destiny was rooted in history, with Americans across social classes seeing it as their duty to promote a peaceful, prosperous, and stable global order.
• US leaders exhibited strong faith in their ability to reshape the world without conflict of interest with other nations’ needs.
• Dean Acheson’s sentiment highlighted America’s hubris, suggesting they could shape history to their vision.
• Life magazine identified the Soviet Union as the main challenge to America, given its capacity to oppose US ideals of truth, justice, and the good life.

Soviet visions of postwar order

• The Soviet postwar strategy stemmed from deep security fears shaped by historical traumas.
• Memories of the Nazi invasion of June 1941 were particularly searing, with massive losses and widespread destruction affecting most families and nearly all regions.
• Past invasions by Germany in WWI, the Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War, and Napoleon’s failed conquest added to the Soviet resolve to ensure robust homeland protection.
• Soviet geography intensified the defense challenge, with European Russia and Siberia exposed to threats from the Polish corridor and Asia, respectively.
• Unlike the US, the USSR had no natural barriers or friendly neighbors to ease its defensive efforts, heightening vulnerability.
• Poland’s security was paramount; Stalin insisted Poland be pro-Soviet to prevent future German invasions.
• Postwar goals included creating pro-Soviet governments in Eastern Europe, expanding borders, annexing the Baltic states and eastern Poland, and weakening Germany through occupation, de-industrialization, and reparations to aid Soviet reconstruction.
• The Soviet expansion plans were tempered by the need for cooperation with the US and Britain post-WWII.
• Practical reasons drove this approach:
  • Avoiding conflict with the West was crucial due to Soviet war losses and the US atomic bomb.
  • The US’s potential financial support for reconstruction was highly valued, and overt aggression might have jeopardized this aid.
  • Recognition and respect as a great power were deeply desired, including an equal voice internationally and acceptance of Soviet interests in Eastern Europe.
• Stalin’s personality heavily influenced this strategy. Known for his ruthlessness and suspicion, he maintained absolute control over Soviet policies, viewing Western allies with distrust despite the wartime alliance.
• Stalin’s foreign policy was shaped by caution and pragmatism alongside his ruthless nature.
• His actions often reflected a balance of opportunity and risk, carefully assessing the “correlation of forces” before acting.
• Soviet ideology rooted in Marxism-Leninism reinforced faith in the future and inevitable conflict with capitalism, leading to patient caution when the West held a superior position.
• Ideology also led to misjudgments: Soviets saw themselves as liberators, not understanding Eastern European resistance, and anticipated capitalist conflicts and economic downturns.
• Both Soviet and American ideologies involved a “messianic faith” in guiding humanity toward a new world order, intensifying their power-driven and ideological conflicts as the Cold War emerged.