Situation up to 1855

• Controversy existed over the possibility of a Russian invasion of India, with opinions divided on the practicability of invasion routes and Russia’s military capabilities in Central Asia.

• Some believed the terrain and tribesmen would decimate Russian forces, preventing a successful invasion, while others argued that the Herat-Kandhar-Bolan route was negotiable and could support large forces.

• Herat was considered the main entry point, and if breached, it could lead to an invasion that would overwhelm India’s defences.

• The construction of the Caspian railway from Krasnovodsk to Merv, and its connection with the Central Asian railway, made the Russian bases closer to Afghanistan, reducing the distance between them and the Afghan frontier.

• Herat and the possibility of an approach to the Hindu Kush from Kabul or Faizabad to Chitral became real threats as the challenges of desert and mountain barriers decreased with advancing science.

• Two main views on Russian military potential emerged: one believed Russia could mobilize a force of 150,000 in Trans-Caspian regions, while the other doubted Russia’s ability to maintain a force in such an inhospitable environment.

• The real problem was not just manpower, but the maintenance of forces on a long and difficult line of communication.

• With advancements in railways, roads, and water transport, the logistical difficulties were significantly eased.

• Bougler (1879) pointed out that the real challenge was not the number of Russian troops, but the hostile terrain and the difficulty of maintaining them.

• There were two groups: one exaggerated the difficulties of the route, dismissing the invasion threat, while the other minimized them for ulterior motives, raising fears of Russian invasion.

• The strategic outlook of these groups influenced the defence policy of India and its diplomacy towards Afghanistan, with one group advocating a defensible frontier at the Indus, and the other pushing for a more advanced frontier at the Hindu Kush.

• The diversity of opinion on the strategic approach affected British diplomacy towards Afghanistan and influenced their military and political decisions.

• The Afghan ruler’s attitude towards India was a crucial factor in British policy.

• The policy sought to ensure that no hostile influence dominated in Kabul, as a Russian presence there would shift the base of operations closer to India’s border.

• The threat of Russian proximity would require Britain to maintain significant forces on the North-Western Frontier, leading to financial strain and political instability.

• British policy from Bentinck to Curzon focused on ensuring the Afghan ruler was friendly and aligned with British influence.

• Differences arose in the methods of achieving this policy, with one group aiming to maintain Afghan independence, while the other advocated for British military outposts, roads, railways, and telegraphs to secure control.

• Two wars and considerable diplomacy were used to achieve this end and secure the Herat-Hindu Kush frontier.

• After the death of Altmed Shah Abdali, his son Timur Mirza became ruler but was weak. On his death in 1793, his brother Zaman Shah succeeded him.

• Zaman Shah consolidated his power and sought to invade India, which caused unrest in the British Indian Empire.

• Lord Wellesley was instructed to monitor Zaman Shah closely due to his military resources and potential to be a formidable opponent.

• Zaman Shah had to divert his attention due to conflicts between Afghanistan and Persia, leading to his downfall. He was eventually overthrown, captured, blinded, and later escaped to Bokhara and Ludhiana.

• Zaman Shah spent his remaining years as a pensioner of the East India Company.

• Mahmud Shah became the ruler of Afghanistan after Zaman Shah but was a puppet of Fateh Khan. Lawlessness prevailed, and after three years, Mahmud was ousted by Shah Shuja.

• Shah Shuja ruled from 1803 to 1809 but struggled due to limited resources and weak leadership. He failed to meet the demands of the time and angered key figures like Fateh Khan.

• Shah Shuja conquered Sind in 1805, but internal problems led to his defeat by Fateh Khan at Gandmark.

• In 1809, Mahmud Shah was restored to the throne but remained a weak ruler under the influence of Fateh Khan.

• Mahmud Shah was removed after getting Fateh Khan arrested, blinded, and killed, leading to further lawlessness from 1818 to 1826.

• In 1826, Dost Mohammad ascended to the throne of Kabul. He ruled from 1826 to 1838 and was a brave and enterprising king.

• Shah Shuja tried to regain the throne in 1834, but Dost Mohammad was able to thwart him.

• Dost Mohammad lost Peshawar to the Sikhs and struggled to reclaim it despite his best efforts.

• Dost Mohammad’s position was weak due to internal and external pressures: revolts in Balkh, a brother opposing him at Kandhar, pressure from Ranjit Singh at Peshawar, and opposition from Shah Shuja, the British Government, Mahmud Shah, Kamran, and Persia.

• Dost Mohammad was open to an alliance with the British East India Company on the condition that the British recover Peshawar from Ranjit Singh and not assist Shah Shuja against him.