Fertility and Mortality Analysis – Geography – UGC NET – Notes

Introduction

• Fertility and mortality are the two most fundamental components of population change and demographic analysis. Together with migration, they determine the size, structure, growth, and long-term sustainability of populations. Fertility refers to the actual reproductive performance of a population, while mortality refers to the frequency and distribution of deaths within that population.
• Analyzing fertility and mortality is essential for understanding population dynamics, economic development, public health conditions, social structures, and future demographic trends.

Concept and Meaning of Fertility

• Fertility is defined as the actual number of live births occurring in a population. It differs from fecundity, which refers to the biological capacity to reproduce. Fertility is influenced not only by biological factors but also by social, economic, cultural, educational, and political conditions. Demographers analyze fertility to understand population growth, generational replacement, age structure, and dependency ratios.
• One of the most commonly used measures of fertility is the Crude Birth Rate (CBR), which represents the number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year. Although simple to calculate, the crude birth rate does not account for age or sex structure and therefore provides only a general indication of fertility levels.
• More refined measures include the General Fertility Rate (GFR), which calculates the number of live births per 1,000 women of reproductive age, typically between 15 and 49 years. This measure is more accurate than the crude birth rate because it focuses on the population group that is biologically capable of childbearing.
• The most comprehensive fertility indicator is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). The TFR represents the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if current age-specific fertility rates remained constant. A TFR of approximately 2.1 is considered the replacement level in most developed countries, meaning that each generation exactly replaces itself without population growth or decline, assuming no migration.

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

$$CBR\;=\;\frac BP\;\times\;1000$$

Here, B represents the total number of live births in a given year, and represents the mid-year total population. The crude birth rate measures the overall level of fertility in a population but does not account for age or sex composition.

General Fertility Rate

$$GFR\;=\;\frac B{W_{15-49}}\;\times\;1000$$

In this formula, B denotes the total number of live births in a year, and \(W_{15-49}\) denotes the number of women aged 15 to 49 years. The general fertility rate is more precise than the crude birth rate because it focuses on the biologically reproductive population.

Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)

$$ASFR_x\;=\;\frac{B_x}{W_x}\;\times\;1000$$

Here, Bx refers to the number of live births to women in age group x, and Wx refers to the number of women in the same age group. Age-specific fertility rates show how fertility varies across different age cohorts.

Total Fertility Rate

$$TFR\;=\;\sum_{x\;=\;15}^{49}(\frac{ASFR_x\;\times\;5}{1000})$$

The total fertility rate is the sum of age-specific fertility rates multiplied by the width of each age interval (usually five years). It represents the average number of children a woman would have during her lifetime under current fertility conditions.

Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

$$GRR\;=\;TFR\;\times p_f$$

In this formula, \(p_f\) represents the proportion of female births. The gross reproduction rate estimates the average number of daughters a woman would have if she survived through her reproductive years, without considering mortality.

Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)

$$NRR\;=\;\sum_{x\;=\;15}^{49}(ASFR_x\;\times\;p_f\;\times\;l_x$$

Here, lx represents the probability of survival of women to age x. The net reproduction rate accounts for female mortality and indicates whether a generation of women is replacing itself.