• The population of a country is often described as its horoscope, because a high population burden can severely strain natural and economic resources, while the same population, if judiciously utilised, can be transformed into a demographic dividend.

• A few centuries ago, Thomas Malthus predicted a bleak future for humanity due to unchecked population growth, but more recently China has demonstrated that a large population does not necessarily obstruct development if managed effectively.

• The population of India presents a major developmental challenge, and many demographers consider it the root cause of multiple socio-economic problems, while its high growth rate creates additional difficulties, particularly in the field of economic and social planning.

• In this context, special demographic attention is required for vulnerable sections such as the aged, women and children, and within a patriarchal society, the vulnerability of elderly women increases manifold due to economic dependence and social neglect.

• Population studies (demography) is a relatively new scientific discipline in most countries, but it has gained immense importance in recent times because the analysis of demographic data is essential for the efficient and equitable use of finite resources.

• India enjoys a unique global distinction of conducting a decennial census continuously for a very long period, with the first truly pan-Indian Census conducted in 1881, providing a reliable long-term demographic database.

• Census data is crucial not only for aggregate population analysis but also for targeting specific population groups, especially elderly persons and children, in policy formulation and welfare planning.

• The first sociological analysis of population in post-Independence India was undertaken jointly by the United Nations Population Commission and the Government of India, marking the institutionalisation of population studies in India.

• Another major empirical landmark was The Population of India and Pakistan (1952), commissioned by Kingsley Davis, which is regarded as a foundational reference point for the sociological study of population issues in India.

• A further milestone in the development of demographic research was the establishment of the Indian Association for the Study of Population in 1971, which institutionalised population studies and promoted systematic demographic research in India.

Population Size, Growth, Composition and Distribution

• The size, growth and distribution of population are determined by three basic demographic processes: the number of births, the number of deaths, and net migration, calculated by subtracting the number of persons leaving a country from those entering it.

• According to the Census of India 2011, India’s population stood at around 125 crore, making it the second most populous country in the world, with projections indicating that India will overtake China by 2025 to become the most populous nation.

• In terms of growth, India continues to register an annual population growth rate of about 1.9 per cent, which remains above the replacement-level growth rate, indicating continued demographic expansion.

• Since Independence, India’s population has increased more than threefold, rising from around 36 crore to over 125 crore, highlighting the magnitude of demographic change.

• The National Population Policy, 2000 set 2045 as the target year for population stabilisation, which was subsequently revised to 2065, reflecting slower-than-expected demographic transition.

• The 2011 Census was significant because, for the first time since Independence, the decadal population growth rate fell below 20 per cent, signalling a gradual demographic slowdown.

• Census data also revealed that urban population growth exceeded rural population growth, underscoring accelerating urbanisation and rural-to-urban migration trends.

• An important observation from the 2011 Census was the inverse relationship between literacy, development and population growth, with higher literacy and development levels associated with lower growth rates.

• Among large states, Bihar recorded the highest population growth rate of about 25 per cent, while Kerala registered the lowest growth rate at around 5 per cent, reflecting regional demographic disparities.

• The composition of India’s population mirrors its broader diversity, with an age structure dominated by youth, offering a substantial demographic dividend if effectively harnessed through education and employment.

• Another key feature of India’s population is a skewed sex ratio of around 940 females per 1000 males, reflecting persistent gender imbalance.

• In terms of religious composition, Hindus constitute about 80 per cent of the population, Muslims around 14 per cent, and the remaining share comprises other religious communities.

• Overall literacy rate stands at approximately 75 per cent, though literacy levels vary significantly across communities, regions and social groups, indicating uneven human development.

Determinants of population growth can be divided into the following broad categories:

• Demographic factors such as birth rate and mortality rate directly influence population growth, and the Demographic Transition Theory explains that population grows rapidly when death rates decline due to medical advancement while birth rates remain high, but growth slows once birth rates are also controlled through measures like family planning.

• Economic factors strongly affect fertility, as observed by the Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India in the 2011 Census, showing that lower economic status families have more children, and economically weaker states exhibit higher population growth.

• During 2001–2011, Empowered Action Group (EAG) states, which are economically backward, recorded decadal growth rates above 20 per cent, while non-EAG states showed growth below 15 per cent, highlighting the link between poverty and population growth.

• Educational status is closely linked to fertility rates, with less educated families often being less informed about family planning methods, resulting in higher birth rates.

• Social values such as the preference for male children encourage larger family size, thereby contributing to higher fertility and population growth.

• Natural calamities can sharply reduce population growth, as seen during 1911–1921, when India experienced a negative growth rate despite high births due to plague and influenza epidemics.

• Increase in net migration can significantly raise population size, as observed in countries like Fiji and Mauritius during the 18th and 19th centuries, owing to migration from India and Burma.

• Age of marriage is a crucial determinant, as lower marriage age extends the reproductive span, leading to higher birth rates.

• Cultural and religious factors influence fertility, with some religious practices discouraging contraception, such as fatwas by certain ulemas in rural Uttar Pradesh declaring contraceptive use anti-Islamic, and orthodox Christian doctrines opposing abortion at any stage, illustrated by the 2012 death of an Indian-origin doctor in Canada linked to such beliefs.

• Religious injunctions encouraging reproduction exist in most major world religions, except Buddhism, which does not prescribe breeding and multiplication.

• Diseases and pandemics like AIDS have caused population decline in parts of Africa, while simultaneously making people more cautious about sexual behaviour, indirectly influencing fertility patterns.

• Increased food production and improved distribution systems have reduced food insecurity and mortality due to malnutrition, thereby supporting population growth.

• Infrastructure development, especially rapid transport and communication, has enabled quick movement of food grains from surplus to deficit regions, preventing deaths from epidemics, droughts and famines.

• Improved sanitation has reduced the spread of water-borne and contact-based diseases, contributing to lower mortality rates and sustained population growth.