Population Geography

John I. Clarke

Picture of Harshit Sharma
Harshit Sharma

Political Science (BHU)

Contact

CH I. WHAT IS POPULATION GEOGRAPHY ?

Man in Geography

  • Historical dispute over the place of man in geography, early focus on natural environment in relation to man.
  • French human geography school emphasized man as primary inhabitant, explored relationships between man, activities, environment.
  • Vidal de la Blache, Jean Brunhes, Maximilien Sorre contributed varying perspectives on human geography.
  • Human geography contributed significantly to population distribution studies.
  • Some geographers criticized human geography as too broad, overlapping with economics, societies, settlement studies.
  • Debate on distinction between geography and human geography.
  • Trewartha argued population as central to geography, essential background for understanding all other elements.
  • Hooson viewed geography as concerned fundamentally with uneven population distribution globally.
  • Emphasis on studying human ideas about place rather than objective studies.
  • Evolution of population geography as a distinct branch, integral to regional geography and broader geography studies.

Population Geography and Demography

  • Population geography studies spatial variations in distribution, composition, migrations, and growth of populations in relation to the nature of places.
  • Focuses on genetic or dynamic aspects of spatial variations over time and interactions between spatial phenomena.
  • Emphasis on space distinguishes population geography from demography.
  • Demography focuses on population as a whole, while population geography examines areal variations and their relationships with physical, cultural, and economic factors.
  • Both disciplines rely heavily on quantitative data but also incorporate qualitative approaches.
  • Demographers analyze physical, intellectual, and character qualities of populations alongside quantitative aspects.
  • Population geographers explore complex inter-relationships between physical and human environments and population dynamics.
  • Understanding basic demography techniques is essential for population geographers to avoid erroneous correlations or incomplete analyses.
  • Interdisciplinary nature of geography requires population geographers to integrate demographic methods into their research.
  • Training in demographic techniques is crucial for accurate analysis and interpretation in population geography.

Eastern and Western Views of Population Geography

  • Recent increase in publications on population geography in geographical journals and symposia.
  • Evolution and organization of population geography influenced by Trewartha, International Geographic Union, French geographers George and Beaujeu-Gamier, and Zelinsky.
  • Zelinsky advocates for population geography to attain a central position within geography.
  • Challenges in defining the scope of population geography acknowledged by Zelinsky.
  • Human characteristics of interest to population geographers align with census and vital registration data:
    • Absolute numbers
    • Physical characteristics: age, sex, race, morbidity, intelligence
    • Social characteristics: marital status, family, household, residence, literacy, education, language, religion, nationality, ethnic group
    • Economic characteristics: industry, occupation, income
  • Population dynamics include fertility, mortality, migration, and change.
  • Emphasis on certain aspects of population due to centrality in population geography and attention from geographers.
  • Marxist geographers in the Soviet Union reject human geography due to historical determinism and emphasis on economic factors.
  • Soviet conception of population geography broader, includes urban geography, rural settlements, historical geography of population, ethnographic geography, and geography of labor resources.
  • Soviet population geography focuses on productive relationships within population groups and settlement networks.
  • Principles of Soviet population geography include economic determinants of settlement patterns, adaptation of migrants, role of industry and cities, and economic-geographic influences.
  • Population geography in the USSR integral to economic geography, influencing regional and urban planning.
  • Population geography crucial for planning and development in developing countries striving to improve living standards.
  • Population analysis essential in regional geography to understand social and economic evolution accurately.

Human Populations

  • “Population” in this context refers specifically to human populations.
  • In statistics, “population” has a broader meaning beyond humans.
  • Human populations differ from animal populations:
    • Humans are numerous among vertebrates and have a large overall bulk.
    • Outnumbered by species like codfish, sardines, and grasshoppers.
    • Unique in being aware of their population size as a concern.
  • Fertility and mortality patterns in human populations are more stable compared to animals:
    • Less fluctuation in fertility and mortality rates.
    • Human fertility is low due to short reproductive period, fertility checks, cultural restraints, and aging populations.
    • Human mortality mainly results from old age and disease, unlike animals facing predation and food shortages.
  • Urban congestion impacts human health but does not directly affect mortality rates.
  • Humans significantly impact animal populations and environments globally due to ubiquity and mobility.

SEX-COMPOSITION

  • Sex disparity in populations is of geographical interest due to contrasting roles in economy and society.
  • Accurate sex data is feasible in countries with reliable census data.
  • Sex-ratio can be expressed as males per 100 or 1000 females, or vice versa; as males/females percentage of total population; or as proportion of males/females as a decimal of unity.
  • In Europe, except Albania, Faroes, Ireland, and Iceland, females outnumber males.
  • England and Wales had 109.6 females per 100 males in 1921, declining to 106.6 in 1961 despite variations.
  • War and emigration historically influenced sex-selective effects in Europe.
  • Overseas countries receiving European immigrants often show male surplus, notably in pioneer regions like Alaska and Northern Territory of Australia.
  • Asia often has fewer females than males due to lower status, higher mortality, and poorer enumeration.
  • China, India, and Pakistan have notable male surpluses, while Indonesia and Japan slightly favor females.
  • Factors influencing sex-ratio include male-biased births, differential mortality, and migrations.
  • Male births exceed female births globally; prenatal mortality affects male preponderance.
  • Great Britain and advanced countries show 104-106 male births per 100 females, with increasing trends.
  • Socioeconomic factors influence sex-ratio at birth; lower male preponderance seen among certain racial groups like African Americans.
  • Cultural preferences for male children sometimes lead to sex-ratio biases; female infanticide occurs in parts of Asia.
  • Developed countries generally have higher male mortality rates throughout life compared to females.
  • Female mortality decline influenced by environmental factors; females predominant in older age-groups.
  • Some countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America have higher young adult female mortality, contributing to male excess overall.
  • Migrations historically male-biased, but modern transportation facilitates more female migration in advanced countries.
  • European emigration trends shifted towards female predominance post-1930s.
  • Immigrant countries historically received more males; balance adjusting with time.
  • Australia and Canada saw shifts from male surplus to balanced sex-ratios due to immigration patterns.
  • Internal migrations in advanced countries less sex-selective now; more females migrating.
  • Urban-rural differences in sex-ratios evident; rural areas often fewer females due to limited employment opportunities.
  • Regional variations in sex-ratios seen globally; England and Wales exhibit diverse patterns.
  • Australia, New Zealand, US, and Canada show urban female predominance; male dominance increases westward in North America.
  • Developing countries often have male-dominant migrations, especially in rapidly growing industrial centers.
  • African and Asian towns show male preponderance in mining or industrial areas; notable disparities like in Johannesburg.
  • Social and economic implications include demographic fertility effects and assimilation challenges in urban centers.

MARITAL STATUS

  • Marital status reflects proportions of single, married, widowed, and divorced individuals, influenced by age-structure, sex-ratio, social institutions, and economic conditions.
  • Few geographical studies on marital status variations exist.
  • Single population includes minors, unmarried adults seeking marriage, and those vowing celibacy; distribution varies globally based on legal, religious, and economic factors.
  • Single women more common in Western urban areas; older bachelors often prefer rural settings.
  • Marriage is a legal institution, varying by civil, religious, or other means globally; not biologically determined like birth or death.
  • Forms of marriage include monogamy (one man, one woman), polygyny (one man, multiple women), and polyandry (one woman, multiple men); polygyny historically accepted in various cultures until recent centuries.
  • Polygyny facilitated by abnormal sex-ratios, economic motives; chiefs and rulers often practice to enhance prestige and labor force.
  • Polygamous wives may have fewer children than monogamous wives in African contexts.
  • Polyandry rare, associated with female infanticide; can be fraternal (brothers share one wife) or non-fraternal.
  • Number of marriages varies yearly based on age eligibility, economic factors, social conditions; influenced by previous fertility and mortality rates.
  • Marriage rates measured as crude rates per 1000 or 10,000 population, not adjusted for marriageable persons.
  • Trend towards earlier marriage seen in Western Europe and European tradition countries due to economic changes and evolving attitudes.
  • Proportion of married individuals higher in rural areas compared to large towns in many countries.
  • Widowhood more common among women due to male mortality, later marriage, and remarriage patterns.
  • Widows constitute a significant demographic, often facing social challenges in modern society; higher proportions in retirement-focused areas.
  • Divorce rates influenced by social and economic factors; measured as per 1000 or 10,000 inhabitants, ratio to married couples, or ratio to average annual marriages.
  • Variation in divorce laws and cultural attitudes affects international comparisons; higher rates in countries with lenient divorce laws.
  • USA and USSR have higher divorce rates compared to Europe; England and Wales saw significant rise post-1937 divorce legislation revision.
  • Urban areas typically have higher divorce rates than rural areas due to differing social norms and economic conditions.
  • Most divorced individuals remarry, impacting fertility studies; remarriage common in many cultures, including Islamic countries.

FAMILIES AND HOUSEHOLDS

  • Family defined as a social group based on marriage and kinship ties, sharing a common culture and household; foundational unit in social structure, widely prevalent globally.
  • Household refers to a group of people living together, not necessarily a family; crucial in settlement patterns and geographical contexts.
  • Nuclear family simplest form, consisting of father, mother, and children; broader demographic definitions include married couples without children, widowed, and divorced individuals.
  • Average family size measured by live or total births per marriage, analyzed across age groups, generations, and cohorts; useful for geographic comparisons.
  • Extended families may result from polygamy, joint residence forming joint families, or kinship forming clans; linked through patrilineal or matrilineal descent.
  • Maternal and patriarchal family types distinguished; maternal more common in primitive societies, patriarchal dominant historically and economically in civilizations.
  • Decline in family size observed with industrialization, urbanization, and changing societal norms; shift towards smaller, more individualistic and democratic families.
  • Influence of religion varies; Roman Catholic families tend to be larger, impacting family size demographics.
  • Classification of households into private and institutional categories; private households defined by joint occupancy, shared meals, and basic living provisions.
  • Primary unit for census purposes is family nucleus, comprising married couple with or without children, or lone parent with children.
  • Analysis of households reveals trends in social organization and demographic changes; average household size influenced by institutional households.
  • England and Wales saw increase in households due to more marriages, earlier marriages, and smaller families; average household size declined significantly from 1911 to 1961.
  • Urban areas show higher proportion of one-person households, indicating greater mobility and fewer family bonds compared to rural areas.
  • Regional variations in household sizes and numbers influenced by population distribution, economic factors, and housing availability.
  • Areas around large towns and expanding industries experienced notable increases in household numbers and dwellings during certain periods.

ECONOMIC COMPOSITION

  • Focus on population aspects influencing demographic trends indirectly.
  • Active population defined as economically active or labor force, distinct from labor supply.
  • Definitions vary: includes working age population, working population, and employed population with unemployed.
  • UN prefers broader definition of working population including unpaid family workers, employed and unemployed.
  • Inactive population includes children, retired, students, housewives, and those living off royalties, rents, pensions.
  • Activity rate measures proportion economically active, age-specifically.
  • Comparisons of activity rates across countries challenging due to varied definitions and age limits, often reported for males only.
  • Economic activity varies by age group, influenced by demographic, social, and economic factors.
  • Young, rapidly growing populations in underdeveloped countries have small active populations, high youth dependency.
  • Developed countries face aging populations, “heavy old-age dependency.”
  • Economic changes, urban-rural ratios impact activity rates; rural areas often higher but varies.
  • Urbanization historically reduced women’s activity rates, countered by fertility decline, smaller families, and economic changes.
  • Income, employment levels influence activity rates, debated importance.
  • Health status affects activity rates; poorer countries may have higher physical disability rates but benefit from younger labor force.

Unemployment

  • Unemployment occurs in several forms: (a) persistent and general, (b) cyclical, (c) short duration, (d) structural within specific industries or occupations, (e) technical due to improved production methods, (f) concealed where workers’ productivity isn’t fully utilized.
  • Population trends’ effects on unemployment in industrialized capitalist countries are debated; in underdeveloped countries, population increase often leads to disguised unemployment, known as underemployment, especially in agricultural communities.
  • Underemployment is widespread in underdeveloped countries but challenging to measure accurately.
  • Data on unemployment in developed countries can be misleading; may exclude youth seeking first jobs or married women seeking employment.
  • Unemployment rates may not fully capture economic distress; factors like female/male employment ratios, elderly population proportions, and outward migration are relevant.
  • Unemployment patterns vary significantly nationally and internationally.
  • Geographic analysis of unemployment focuses on unequal distribution of natural and human resources, economic specialization, labor and industry immobility, and other factors.
  • Local economies out of sync with economic growth trends often face structural unemployment issues.

Industrial Composition

  • Industrial classification of the active population categorizes by type of establishment, product, or service.
  • Standard Industrial Classification of 1958 lists thousands of industries, grouped into orders and sub-orders aligned with the UN’s International Standard Industrial Classification.
  • Challenges include diversity within industries and rapid industry growth, prompting grouping into broader categories for trend analysis.
  • United Nations Statistical Commission uses a nine-division classification for international comparisons:
    1. Agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing.
    2. Mining and quarrying.
    3. Manufacturing industries.
    4. Construction.
    5. Electricity, gas, water, and sanitary services.
    6. Commerce.
    7. Transport, storage, and communication.
    8. Services.
    9. Not classifiable elsewhere.
  • Industrial composition varies significantly by country and region, with notable differences in agriculture, manufacturing, commerce, and services.
  • Colin Clark’s three-sector model simplifies industrial analysis into:
    1. Primary activities: agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing.
    2. Secondary activities: mining, quarrying, manufacturing, and construction.
    3. Tertiary activities: commerce, transportation, communication, and services.
  • Developed countries show a shift towards tertiary sectors, while underdeveloped countries often have a significant portion engaged in primary activities.
  • Industrial composition analysis considers factors like age, sex, marital status, and ethnic composition.
  • Geographic analysis focuses on the distribution of the industrial population, influenced by population movements and labor mobility.
  • Census data limitations include divergence between workplace and residence, affecting industrial location studies.
  • Study of industrial composition tracks the rise, decline, and specialization of industries, towns, and regions within countries.

Occupational Composition

  • Occupation refers to a person’s trade, profession, or type of work, applicable across various industries.
  • Classification of occupations faces more challenges than industries, with over 40,000 occupations in England and Wales in 1951, revised in 1961 for census purposes.
  • Occupational data often provide deeper insights into individual characteristics compared to industry classifications, despite being prone to errors.
  • Geographic analysis of occupational data parallels industrial data challenges, including diverse categories and distinctions between workplace and residence.
  • International comparisons use simplified classifications like the U.N. Demographic Yearbook’s ten groups:
  1. Professional, technical, and related workers.
  2. Managerial, executive, and administrative workers.
  3. Clerical workers.
  4. Sales workers.
  5. Farmers, fishermen, hunters, lumbermen, and related workers.
  6. Workers in mining, quarrying, and related occupations.
  7. Workers in transport and communication.
  8. Craftsmen, production process workers, and unclassified laborers.
  9. Service, sport, and recreation workers.
  10. Workers not classifiable by occupation.
  11. Members of the armed forces.

Industrial Status and Social Structure

  • Industrial status refers to the condition of individuals in their occupations.
  • Typical classifications include: employers, workers on own account, salaried employees, wage earners, and unpaid family workers.
  • Some countries add a category for members of producers’ cooperatives, complicating international comparability.
  • Limited change in industrial status over years in countries like Great Britain has led to its neglect by geographers.
  • Analysis of industrial status by industry, occupation, and region illuminates social structures.
  • Social contrasts evident between different locales: mining vs. agricultural villages, industrial vs. market towns, naval vs. fishing ports.
  • Social structure incorporates living standards, classes, and social dependence, challenging statistical analysis.
  • Derruau’s categories classify societies broadly based on social structure: (a) Primitive rural societies with tribal structures, as in Negro Africa. (b) Rural societies with landlords and peasants, seen in Iran or southern Iraq. (c) Traditional Western rural societies with high rural non-farm populations, exemplified in Western Germany. (d) Rural societies with numerous agricultural laborers, such as in Languedoc. (e) Colonial societies with diverse traditions and living standards, found in parts of Africa. (f) Societies with small rural populations, high living standards, and significant trade and commerce, like Australia. (g) Industrial societies characterized by urbanization and class segregation. (h) Communist societies with minimal living standard differentiation, e.g., Yugoslavia and China. (i) Communist societies with marked living standard differences, such as the USSR.
  • Societies evolve at varying rates, leading to increasing social structure disparities.

Socio-economic Groups

  • Social class classification in Britain based on occupational units:
    1. Professional
    2. Intermediate
    3. Skilled manual
    4. Partly skilled
    5. Unskilled
  • Classes II, III, and IV further divided into manual, non-manual, and agricultural sub-groups.
  • This classification criticized as crude, arbitrary, and unwieldy.
  • Socio-economic groups provide a more objective classification:
    1. Employers and managers in large establishments
    2. Employers and managers in small establishments
    3. Self-employed professional workers
    4. Employees in professional roles
    5. Intermediate non-manual workers
    6. Junior non-manual workers
    7. Personal service workers
    8. Foremen and supervisors (manual)
    9. Skilled manual workers
    10. Semi-skilled manual workers
    11. Unskilled manual workers
    12. Own account workers (non-professional)
    13. Farmers as employers and managers
    14. Farmers as own account workers
    15. Agricultural workers
    16. Members of the armed forces
  • Hall and Smith combine these groups into three classes.
  • Local authority classification in England and Wales into six categories based on socio-economic class composition of male population.
  • 1961 census data illustrates stark contrasts between regions, especially north vs. south and urban vs. rural areas.
  • Map of socio-economic categories highlights spatial variations in social class distribution.

NATIONALITY

  • Nation and nationality concepts are complex, involving racial, linguistic, cultural, psychological, and administrative factors.
  • Geographers define “nation” as people with shared sentiment, traditions, and territory seeking cultural unity free from political domination.
  • Common language and religion often characterize nationality, but homogeneous racial stock is rare and historical tradition not essential.
  • Nation and state concepts often overlap; nation-states are less common than multi-national states.
  • European settlement countries sometimes transform into nation-states despite diverse immigrant origins.
  • U.S.S.R. maintains multi-national structure with around 108 nationalities; Russian language usage impacts nationality.
  • Nationality influenced by sentiments swayed by propaganda; transient nature of national identity discussed.
  • National minorities may maintain unity despite external pressures, possibly due to minority status.
  • Definitions of nation and nationality vary widely globally; race, language, and culture serve as defining criteria.
  • Legal nationality in demographic studies refers to citizenship; distinction between foreigners and foreign-born emphasized.
  • Challenges in international comparisons of nationality data due to varying definitions and census methodologies.
  • Legal nationality often reflects country of birth or citizenship; dual nationality and stateless persons pose additional complications.
  • Foreigners concentrated in countries of recent immigration; assimilation trends noted, such as in the United States.
  • Partition of the Indian sub-continent increased foreign populations in India and Pakistan; complexities of African nationalities post-independence discussed.
  • Europe experiences large-scale reshuffles and refugee influxes affecting national demographics.
  • Industrialized western Europe attracts high numbers of foreigners; specific examples like Monaco and Macau noted for high foreign proportions.
  • Urban vs. rural settlement patterns affect foreigner integration; urban areas more accommodating due to economic opportunities.
  • Social and political biases impact mapping and accuracy of nationality data in geographic studies, as shown in Macedonia.

LANGUAGE

  • Language, a universal human attribute, is defined ambiguously; terms like “dialect” and “accent” add to confusion.
  • Lack of uniform language classification impedes global linguistic data comparisons.
  • Three types of linguistic data: mother tongue (language spoken in early childhood), language spoken at home, and individual’s proficiency in specified languages.
  • UN favors mother tongue data for comparative studies; home language and proficiency data useful for studying linguistic assimilation and diversity.
  • Language families, such as Indo-European, Semitic, Dravidian, and Malayo-Polynesian, illustrate global linguistic diversity.
  • Indo-European family includes Germanic, Romance, Celtic, Slavonic, Baltic, Greek, Albanian, Armenian, and Indo-Iranian sub-groups.
  • Languages evolve due to inventions and changing lifestyles; constant changes noted in languages like English.
  • Isolation and geographical barriers historically influenced language development; natural and cultural barriers limit language spread.
  • Trade and cultural exchange spread languages like English, French, Spanish, Arabic, and Chinese globally; trade languages develop in specific regions.
  • Missionaries, migrants, conquerors, and colonists contribute to global language diversity and spread.
  • Community migrations, especially nomadic, have expanded language families like Ural-Altaic, Semitic, Hamitic, and Malayo-Polynesian.
  • Languages forge national identity more powerfully than race; political boundaries and official languages shape linguistic patterns.
  • English serves as an international lingua franca; regionalism and cultural traditions maintain linguistic diversity within European states.
  • Iberian peninsula and Belgium exemplify linguistic diversity affecting separatist sentiments; Switzerland manages four national languages.
  • Multilingualism complicates linguistic mapping and challenges assimilation of linguistic minorities in Europe.
  • Colonial history and independence struggles often driven by language differences, as seen in Asia and Africa.
  • India exemplifies linguistic diversity with 283 languages in 1951, affecting political dynamics despite national language policies.
  • Language differences contribute to political tensions in countries like Ceylon (Sri Lanka), Indonesia, and within the Soviet Union.
  • African linguistic diversity coexists with colonial languages like English, French, Spanish, and Portuguese as official languages.

RELIGION

  • Geography of religion is understudied due to inadequate data compared to other demographic traits.
  • Definitions of religion vary widely; includes mental complex, customs, formal institutions like churches, and shared religious identity.
  • Religion not included in British census since 1851, omitted in many other countries’ census questionnaires, significant in Lebanon.
  • Studies focus on environmental influence on religion, religious impact on environment, human activities, and settlement forms.
  • Global distribution of religions diverse; Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, and Buddhism major world religions.
  • Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, and Buddhism show internal divisions and complexities despite global presence.
  • Regions like the Middle East, Kashmir, and south India demonstrate complex religious patterns and conflicts.
  • Religious patterns generally stable but evolving with conversions and secular influences; Islam spreading in Africa post-colonization.
  • Communism suppresses religion, gains ground in Asia by associating religion with backwardness and social issues.
  • Religious conflicts persist globally; examples include India’s partition, Arab-Israeli conflicts, and tensions in Ireland, Cyprus, and Ceylon.
  • Major religions subdivided; Christianity has Roman Catholic, Orthodox, Coptic, Protestant branches.
  • Islam divided into Sunni and Shi’a; Buddhism also fragmented into various sects.
  • Regional variations in Protestantism noted in the United States; diverse practices among Uniate churches in the Middle East.
  • Few countries have religious uniformity; Scandinavia predominantly Protestant, Iberian and Latin America predominantly Catholic.
  • Catholic-Protestant divisions significant in Canada, USA, UK, Australia, and New Zealand.
  • Religions dynamic, adapting to changing conditions; medieval Christianity more influential than modern times.
  • Primitive societies view religion as magical, influencing supernatural for good fortune.
  • Major challenge in religious geography is lack of comprehensive data hindering qualitative analysis and trend identification.
  • Current state of religious geography remains underdeveloped due to data limitations.

ETHNIC COMPOSITION

  • Human diversity based on physical characteristics like skin color, hair structure, eye color, nasal and head forms, body shape, blood groups.
  • Various racial classifications proposed based on these criteria, ranging from simplistic to complex with categories from 3 to 400.
  • “Race” commonly misunderstood as a community rather than biological or physical stock, associated with social, linguistic, and cultural connotations.
  • Linked historically to myths of social superiority, segregation, economic disparities, and racism.
  • Accuracy in racial classifications impossible due to non-coinciding distributions of human characteristics and increased human mobility.
  • Racial convergence surpassing divergence due to gene pool blending, leading to larger populations with greater individual variations.
  • Challenges in census enumeration due to difficulties in defining racial identity, such as determining thresholds for classification.
  • Censuses often differentiate ethnic groups based on biological and cultural criteria like nationality, language, and religion.
  • Ethnic diversity prevalent globally, particularly in major cities and regions affected by historical European expansion.
  • Four main ethnic groups in multi-racial societies: indigenous people, European colonists, colored peoples (slaves, laborers, traders), and mixed peoples.
  • Issues in plural societies more pronounced where social segregation is enforced, like in South Africa.
  • Localized studies on ethnic diversity in cities like Durban, Singapore, and Chicago illuminate urban structures and evolutionary challenges.
  • Census data limitations in exploring other population aspects like intelligence, educational status, and literacy, despite their significant impact on demographics.
  • Interdisciplinary boundaries between population geography and related fields explored by Zelinsky, highlighting interconnected research areas.

CH VII. PATTERNS OF FERTILITY

Fluctuations in Fertility

  • Clarification of terms necessary due to ambiguity, e.g., live births vs. stillbirths.
  • Fertility defined as live births, distinct from fecundity (reproductive capacity).
  • Reproduction involves replacement of individuals in subsequent generations; sometimes confused with natality.
  • Fertility crucial in population studies as it typically exceeds mortality and migration, impacting population growth and distribution.
  • Unlike mortality, fertility is less constant, influenced by social, economic, political, and psychological factors.
  • Births occur during a limited period in women’s lives, leading to short-term fluctuations in fertility.
  • Data inaccuracies in birth statistics often lead to crude estimates of fertility, despite being widely accepted.
  • United Nations demographers evaluate completeness and accuracy of vital statistics to address these issues.
  • Illegitimacy rates vary geographically, reflecting cultural attitudes towards marriage.
  • High illegitimacy rates observed in English-speaking Caribbean, contrasting with low rates in Ireland.

Indices of Fertility

  • Crude birth rate: Ratio of live births to total population, often per 1000, useful for gross population additions and fertility trends.
  • Limitations: Doesn’t account for age and sex composition, can mask changes in birth patterns over time or due to population aging.
  • Influences: Migration of young adults affects birth rates, making cross-country comparisons difficult and future predictions unreliable.
  • Standardization: Adjusting birth rates for age composition within a country to enable meaningful comparisons.
  • Standardized birth rate: Weighted average of age-specific birth rates adjusted to national age composition, expressed as a percentage of national birth rate.
  • Fertility ratio or child/woman ratio: Number of children under 5 per number of women aged 15-44, standardized rate useful in countries with inadequate vital registration.
  • General fertility rate: Number of births per 1000 women aged 15-49, more accurate than crude birth rate as it focuses on reproductive age groups.
  • Specific fertility rates: Birth rates specific to age of mother or father, calculated for legitimate or illegitimate births, challenging to compare across populations.
  • Total fertility rate: Sum of female age-specific birth rates over reproductive years (usually 15-49), approximate average number of children per woman, considers female age structure.

World Patterns of Fertility

  • Global variation in fertility: Birth rates range widely from 10 to 60 per thousand; fertility rates from 40 to 250 per thousand (for women aged 10-49).
  • High fertility regions: Latin America (excluding Argentina, Chile, and some West Indian islands), Africa, South-West and South-East Asia.
  • Data challenges: Many high fertility countries lack reliable data, relying on estimated birth rates, especially in tropical African countries.
  • Impact of high fertility: Significant population increase in hot, underdeveloped or developing countries, influencing global demographic trends.
  • Low fertility regions: Common in developed countries of Europe, North America, Oceania, and the USSR, with birth rates typically less than 25 per thousand.
  • Bimodal fertility pattern: Clear distinction between developed and underdeveloped countries based on fertility rates, a key socio-economic indicator.
  • Fertility trends: Four major trends identified globally:
    1. Persistent high fertility in underdeveloped countries of Latin America, Africa, and Asia.
    2. Recent declines in fertility in Japan and some underdeveloped countries.
    3. Long-term declines in fertility in many developed countries since the 19th and early 20th centuries.
    4. Fluctuating or stable low fertility in developed countries.
  • Factors influencing fertility: Social, economic, and cultural influences vary widely, affecting fertility rates differently across regions and over time.
  • Examples of fertility decline: Japan’s deliberate policy reduced birth rate from 34 per thousand in 1947 to 17 in 1962; similar declines in other countries like Argentina, Cuba, and parts of Asia.
  • Historical context: Post-war demographic changes, baby booms, and subsequent declines influenced by social and economic factors such as birth control, marriage patterns, and women’s status.
  • Regional fertility patterns post-World War II: Variability across Europe with rises and declines in fertility; stable fertility levels in South-West Europe, USA, Canada, USSR, Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand post-1950s.

Differential Fertility

  • Fertility influenced by wide range of factors: Urban vs. rural populations, racial groups (e.g., Negroes vs. Whites), religious differences (e.g., Catholics vs. Protestants), socioeconomic status (rich vs. poor), occupational groups (miners vs. office workers).
  • Regional fertility patterns: Highlighted by geographic variation, influenced by age structure, marriage patterns, and family size.
  • Age structure impact: Japan vs. Norway example shows youthful age structure affects fertility rates despite similar birth rates.
  • Rural fertility dynamics: Often higher than implied by birth rates due to migration and age group dynamics.
  • Marriage age and fertility: Later marriage correlates with lower fertility in low-fertility nations compared to high-fertility nations.
  • Influence of family limitation: Includes birth control, sterilization, abortion, and abstention; major factor in fertility decline in developed countries.
  • Religious attitudes and fertility: Religious groups’ attitudes towards birth control influence fertility rates (e.g., Catholic vs. Protestant).
  • Cultural factors: Social customs, polygamy, and health factors (e.g., venereal diseases) impact fertility rates in various societies.
  • Urban vs. rural fertility differences: Generally, rural areas show higher fertility due to different demographic habits and lower infant mortality.
  • Socioeconomic class and fertility: Historical phases of fertility trends among socioeconomic classes; complex relationships observed.
  • Economic conditions’ impact: Economic prosperity can affect fertility differently in young vs. aged populations; economic crises also influence fertility rates.
  • Regional economic factors: Economic development rates affect regional fertility patterns; examples from France, Italy, Spain illustrate varied impacts.
  • Racial differentials in fertility: Examples from New Zealand, Rhodesia, Zambia, Brazil, and the United States show racial groups exhibit differential fertility rates.
  • Political influences on fertility: Government policies, war engagements, economic development programs, and population policies influence fertility rates.
  • Data challenges: Inadequate data hinder detailed analysis of differential fertility, despite significant potential for geographic studies.
  • Interdisciplinary connections: Fertility studies intersect with sociology, economy, and environmental factors, revealing indirect relationships with society.

CH VIII. PATTERNS OF MORTALITY

Characteristics of Mortality

  • Mortality defined as occurrence of death, stable and predictable compared to fertility, less subject to fluctuations.
  • Effects of mortality on population change and age composition are significant; linked closely with longevity.
  • Death control more acceptable socially than birth control; decline in mortality due to medical progress in underdeveloped countries.
  • Global decline in mortality more widespread than fertility decline; increasing longevity contributes to population growth.
  • Mortality’s demographic significance and its social, economic impacts make it crucial for geographic study.
  • Geographical study of mortality vital in medical geography due to inadequate morbidity data worldwide.
  • Dependence on “causes of death” data in medical geography due to data availability limitations.
  • Crude mortality data generally more continuous and reliable than fertility data, though often underestimated.
  • Historical context: John Graunt’s seventeenth-century London mortality records predate similar fertility data collection.
  • Recording of deaths by place of usual residence enhances data accuracy; small administrative areas often have mortality data available.
  • Challenges in mortality data: Recording infant mortality separately from fetal deaths; distinction between live births and stillbirths critical.
  • Calculation of stillbirth ratios provides specific data on stillbirth occurrences relative to live births.

Indices of Mortality

  • Crude death rate: Number of deaths per thousand inhabitants, calculated at mid-year or beginning of year.
  • Beginning of year rate reflects probability of dying within the year.
  • Comparisons using crude death rates valid only for populations with identical age compositions.
  • Danger in comparing death rates between old and young populations due to different mortality patterns.
  • Crude death rates can be detailed into cause-specific mortality rates, indicating deaths per 100,000 persons.
  • Age-specific death rates and standardized mortality rates (S.M.R.s) calculated similarly to fertility rates.
  • Life tables pivotal in mortality analysis by age and sex, based on observed mortality conditions.
  • Accuracy of life tables reliant on census and vital registration validity, feasible primarily in advanced countries.
  • Five common coefficients in life tables: life table mortality rate, survival table, death tables, average expectation of life, and probable or median life.
  • Infant mortality rates crucial, measuring deaths of infants under one year per thousand live births.
  • Reduction in infant mortality often precedes overall mortality decline, varies independently in underdeveloped countries.
  • Published infant mortality rates often underestimate reality due to registration omissions.
  • Perinatal mortality occurs after viability, neonatal mortality within first four weeks, and post-neonatal within remainder of first year.
  • Perinatal and neonatal mortality mainly due to internal or congenital causes.
  • Mortality highest among children aged 0-4 years in backward countries, contrasted with developed countries.
  • Adolescent mortality generally lowest among age groups.
  • Reproductive wastage includes losses from fertilization to age five, particularly affecting male numbers in developed countries.
  • Maternal mortality rate indicates deaths per ten thousand live births from childbirth complications.
  • Disparity in maternal mortality rates between developed and underdeveloped countries reflects healthcare availability.

World Patterns of Mortality

  • UN estimate around 1970: Average global death rate was 14 per thousand, two-fifths of the estimated birth rate.
  • Higher death rates mainly in southern Asia, Africa, and parts of Latin America (excluding Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Uruguay).
  • High mortality attributed to very high infant mortality rates (over 100 per thousand, sometimes exceeding 300).
  • Low life expectancy (under 50 years, sometimes as low as 30) due to low living standards, hygiene, and medical care.
  • West European countries like Great Britain have death rates between 10 and 13 per thousand, hindered by aging populations.
  • Scandinavia and Netherlands show death rates below 10 per thousand due to lower infant mortality, higher life expectancy, and superior medical care.
  • Eastern and southern Europe also have low death rates, influenced more by youthful age structures than advanced medical conditions.
  • Mortality range in Europe narrower than fertility range; highest death rate in 1968 was 13.0 in Austria, lowest 7.6 in Poland.
  • Australia, New Zealand, United States, Canada, and USSR have low mortality rates (below 10 per thousand) due to youthful populations, high living standards, and improved fertility.
  • Japan, Argentina, Uruguay, and some Latin American states, along with smaller countries like Bermuda, Puerto Rico, Iceland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, have achieved extremely low mortality rates (5.5 to 7.6 per thousand).
  • Small countries with large gaps between fertility and mortality face challenges of natural increase.

Mortality Trends

  • World variations in mortality smaller than fertility variations.
  • Levelling trend observed, former correlations between mortality and economic advancement invalidated.
  • Equality in face of death increasing, mortality’s influence on population growth reducing, fertility becoming primary determinant.
  • Two phases of mortality decline:
    • First phase in 18th-20th centuries in Europe, North America, Australasia.
    • Started in 18th century in Scandinavia, after 1820 in England/Wales, late 19th century in most of Western Europe.
  • Factors contributing to mortality decline: improved sanitation, housing, food/water supplies, rising living standards, medical science.
  • Decline rate slowed in 20th century except in USSR, South/East Europe; focus shifted from infant mortality to diseases of aged.
  • Aging populations in advanced countries hinder further mortality improvements; focus on diseases like cancer, heart diseases.
  • Underdeveloped countries saw no significant mortality decline until last two decades.
  • Recent mortality decline in underdeveloped countries sometimes dramatic due to youthful age structures.
  • Some countries (Jamaica, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico) benefited greatly from medical knowledge, infectious disease campaigns, increased life expectancy without comparable economic advancement.
  • Mortality reduction progress uneven; slower in countries like India compared to Ceylon, Brazil compared to Venezuela.
  • Disparities in mortality levels significant in underdeveloped regions, especially between social classes, economic classes, racial groups, urban and rural societies.
  • Expected further reductions in mortality levels in underdeveloped regions in 1970s and beyond.
  • By 1980, potential for majority of world’s inhabitants to have life expectancy at birth of 65 years, contingent on improvements in Asia, Africa overcoming barriers like malnutrition, poverty, illiteracy.

Differential Mortality

  • Age and sex structures significant in mortality; males generally higher mortality than females in most underdeveloped countries, widening gap possibly biologically driven.
  • Married individuals generally show lower mortality than unmarried; healthier people tend to marry.
  • Racial mortality differentials in US (Negroes vs Whites), New Zealand (Maoris vs Europeans) attributed more to social, economic, environmental conditions than biological differences.
  • Japan’s mortality reduction comparable to Western Europe, North America indicates environmental, societal impacts on mortality.
  • South, East Africa still exhibit stark racial mortality differences; non-African populations (Europeans, Indians) have lower rates due to concentrated healthcare in urban areas.
  • Urban-rural mortality differentials historically significant; urban areas now often have lower mortality due to improved living conditions, healthcare access in underdeveloped countries.
  • Regional mortality contrasts evident in advanced countries; old industrial towns (e.g., Lancashire, West Riding) show higher mortality than southern, eastern towns (e.g., Canterbury, Oxford).
  • Socio-economic disparities evident; highest mortality among poorest, lowest among wealthy, especially pronounced in infant mortality, leveling observed in advanced countries.
  • Occupational mortality studies in England and Wales since 1851 reveal complex relationships; unskilled workers have highest mortality, skilled workers next, followed by professionals, semi-skilled workers, managers.
  • Mortality variations among occupational groups likely due more to living conditions than occupational risks; occupational mortality data affected by changes, mis-statements, and healthier individuals in certain occupations.
  • Environmental catastrophes (floods, earthquakes, volcanoes) cause sudden mortality, but climate’s intricate relationship with disease more influential.
  • Seasonal mortality variations in Britain (e.g., higher deaths in January than August) indicate climate effects; diminishing variability due to factors like insolation, atmospheric pollution, air conditioning.
  • Influence of solar, atomic radiations on mortality noted; ionizing radiations increase leukemia risk.
  • Soil quality, water supply quantity and quality also influential on mortality patterns.

Causes of Death

  • Medical geography intersects with geographical studies of causes of death, constrained by data deficiencies in less advanced countries.
  • Challenges include varied declarations of cause of death (“senility”, “causes unknown”), incomplete population diagnosis, and inconsistent nomenclatures.
  • WHO’s Manual of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases helps standardize classifications, but international comparisons remain difficult.
  • Issues arise over whether to record immediate or long-term causes of death; some causes (like influenza) have only recently been identified, making historical comparisons risky.
  • Two main groups of causes of death: degenerative (senility, heart diseases, cancer) in controlled disease countries, and environmental (infectious diseases, accidents) where disease control is limited.
  • Diseases categorized into those common universally, those linked to low living standards, and tropical diseases prevalent in tropical regions.
  • Mapping of mortality and disease occurs at four levels: world (Jacques May’s Atlas of Diseases), continental (Africa’s disease distributions), national (Howe’s National Atlas of Disease Mortality for the UK), and local (e.g., Dr. Snow’s study on cholera).
  • Climate plays a dominant role in disease distribution globally and continentally, influencing patterns of diseases like malaria, yellow fever, and others.
  • Regional variations in disease prevalence related to population distribution, malnutrition, and agricultural practices are significant in geographical studies.
  • Detailed local studies encouraged to uncover correlations or causative factors in disease and mortality distribution by geographers and medical practitioners.

CH IX. MIGRATIONS

The Mobility of Man

  • Mobility of humans has increased with technological and economic advancements.
  • Specialized means of transport measure distance in terms of time.
  • Increased mobility facilitates migrations of populations.
  • Migration often involves a change of residence of substantial duration.
  • Definitions of migration vary; excludes pastoral nomads, tourists, and daily commuters.
  • Article explores a broader range of population movements than typically discussed.

Classification and Terminology

  • Migration exhibits extreme diversity in cause, duration, distance, direction, volume, velocity, selectivity, and organization.
  • Types of migration include seasonal, temporary, periodic, and permanent migrations.
  • Migrations can be spontaneous, forced, impelled, free, or planned.
  • Categories include internal (within a state) and external (international) migrations.
  • State boundaries and data availability influence the trend towards internal vs. external migration distinctions.
  • Internal and external migrations share causes, characteristics, and consequences despite terminology differences.
  • Emigration and immigration involve permanent or temporary change of residence across state boundaries.
  • Temporary migrants vs. visitors distinction can be ambiguous in practice.
  • Terms like emigration and immigration can exclude movements between colonial territories or national groups within a state.
  • Internal migration terms: outward-migration (emigration) and inward-migration (immigration).
  • Net migration is the balance between immigration and emigration, often a small fraction of gross migration.
  • Migration rates measure migrants relative to the population exposed to migration likelihood, specific to age and sex.

Differential Migration

  • Migration is selective, preferring certain population elements over others based on traits.
  • Age is a significant differential; late adolescents and young adults dominate both internal and external migrations.
  • Older adults and retirees also form migration streams in some cases.
  • Sex-selective effects vary: in advanced countries, short-distance internal migrants are mostly female, while long-distance internal and many international migrants are predominantly male; underdeveloped countries see predominantly male migrants.
  • Marital status of migrants has evolved; family migrations seeking better housing, schools, and jobs are increasing in developed countries.
  • Occupation plays a role; professional classes migrate more than skilled or unskilled workers; unemployed persons are more migratory.
  • Migration selection also occurs by race, nationality, and educational attainment.
  • Destination conditions often influence migration more than origin conditions; push factors lead to less selective migration than pull factors.
  • Ethnic diversity affects migration patterns, influencing occupation specialization and socio-economic status in destination countries.

INTERNAL MIGRATIONS

  • Direct measurement of internal migration requires a census or residence registration system; indirect methods include comparing consecutive censuses or place-of-birth statistics.
  • Disadvantages of indirect methods include uncertainty about timing, number of moves, and mortality effects; often supplemented by sample surveys.

  • Migration causes are complex and complementary, involving push and pull factors at both origin and destination:

    • Migration-stimulating conditions: graduation, marriage, employment opportunities, economic factors, social and political oppression, natural disasters, etc.
    • Factors in choosing destination: cost, presence of relatives or friends, job opportunities, community attractiveness, amenities, etc.
    • Socio-economic conditions affecting migration: economic recessions, technological changes, social welfare provisions, migration policies, etc.
  • Additional factors influencing migration include population pressure, land availability, transportation, wars, cultural differences, climate changes, and distance.
  • Zipf’s inverse distance law suggests migration volume inversely correlates with distance, modified by opportunities and competing migrants at destinations.
  • Country size affects migration; large countries see more internal migrations, while smaller countries may rely more on external migrations.
  • Natural barriers like mountains and deserts influence migration patterns; environmental features can channel or restrict migration streams.
  • Migration decisions are influenced by a complex interplay of factors; decisions are not always rational, and not all family members may participate in the decision-making.
  • Migration streams reflect changing stimuli and historical influences; areas with high in-migration often experience high out-migration.
  • In the United States, significant population mobility is observed, with many individuals changing residences annually and a quarter living outside their birth state.
  • Migration is not always permanent; many migrants intend temporary stays, reassess pull factors, or eventually return home.
  • Counter-streams occur but are smaller when significant push factors exist at origin or when obstacles to migration are substantial.
  • Sedentary vs. nomadic populations are distinguished in many censuses; nomadic food gatherers often engage in seasonal migrations for hunting, fishing, or collecting.
  • Relic peoples, such as Tierra del Fuegians, Andamanese, and Eskimos, live in small groups with complex social structures, often in remote or hostile environments like tropical forests.
  • Pastoral nomadism involves moving human groups and livestock to follow pastures, common in deserts, semi-deserts, and grasslands across various latitudes.
  • Nomadic societies vary in group size, migration distances, duration, and livestock types; distinctions include pure nomadism and semi-nomadism based on cultivation involvement.
  • Examples include Persian nomads (e.g., Kashgai), Saharan nomads (e.g., Arbaa), and Sudanese cattle breeders (e.g., Baggara) with rhythmic seasonal migrations.
  • Nomadic pastoralists cover substantial portions of the Earth’s surface, facing challenges from modern developments like transport, security measures reducing raiding, and agricultural encroachment.
  • Nomads have historically faced pressure from new states to settle, leading to a decline in their numbers through spontaneous, planned, or forced settlement.
  • Transhumance involves seasonal migrations of flocks between winter valleys and summer mountains, practiced in Mediterranean regions; types include ascendant, descendant, and double transhumance.
  • Harvests stimulate seasonal migrations globally; examples include fruit picking, hop picking, and grain harvesting in Europe, and wheat harvesting from Texas to Manitoba in the United States.
  • Seasonal migration also occurs in fishing, mining, tourism, and entertainment industries, as well as in religious pilgrimages to places like Lourdes, Mecca, and Benares.
  • Periodic migrations involve migrants leaving home for several years to work elsewhere, aiming to earn income to send back home; common in Africa for laborers moving to urban centers or mines.
  • Many periodic migrants engage in specialized occupations in towns, sometimes settling permanently despite initial intentions.
  • Farm-to-farm migrations occur with tenancy and share-cropping systems, notably in the southern United States and in bush-fallowing practices in tropical regions, where land is cultivated until exhausted before moving to new patches.
  • Rural-urban migrations are crucial in countries undergoing industrialization and technological change, contributing significantly to economic development and per capita income growth.
  • In the United States and the U.S.S.R., internal migrations predominantly move towards urban areas or their suburbs, driven by economic opportunities.
  • Highly urbanized countries like Britain are seeing shifts from rural-urban to inter-urban and urban-rural migrations.
  • Push factors for rural-urban migration include population pressure, modernization of agriculture, changes in land tenure, while pull factors include increased employment opportunities and better working conditions in urban settings.
  • Transport infrastructure, especially railways, has been pivotal in reducing rural isolation and facilitating cultural exchanges and job availability, though cultural contrasts can inhibit migration in some countries like India.
  • Rural-urban migration often involves less fortunate individuals and has corrected labor surpluses in rural areas, resulting in occupational shifts towards non-agricultural sectors.
  • Urban areas attract migrants with amenities such as schools, shops, public utilities, and entertainment, but also pose challenges like high living costs, housing shortages, noise, and pollution.
  • Some countries, like Italy, have required migrants to have employment certificates to mitigate urban unemployment and beggary.
  • In rural areas, migration effects range from population relief to depopulation and abandonment, affecting age structures, agricultural viability, and community activities.
  • Small towns sometimes act as stopovers for rural-urban migrants, but not universally; suburbs and rural areas near large cities often grow faster than the cities themselves.
  • In large cities, centrifugal migration is evident with the decline in population in inner and suburban rings, contrasting with growth in outer areas facilitated by improved transport and rising land values.
  • Intra-urban migration decisions are influenced by place utility, reflecting attractiveness relative to other locations, especially in terms of housing availability and preferences.
  • The growth of commuting is linked to economic concentrations, with challenges like dissonant journeys to work, highlighting the need for improved transport and urban planning.
  • Census data on commuting patterns often lacks detail; methods like job ratio mapping have been used to assess job distribution versus resident populations.
  • Complex patterns of commuting include radial, circumferential, and transverse routes in large cities, contributing to rush hour congestion and necessitating specialized transport solutions.
  • Weekend and holiday travel for leisure is prominent in developed countries, impacting regional economies and population distribution.
  • Inter-regional migrations often overlap with rural-urban movements, with recent trends showing shifts from rural and urban areas within one region to urban centers in another.
  • Colonizing migrations, whether spontaneous or planned, historically influenced by railways and government policies, have shaped regional demographics (e.g., westward movement in the U.S., eastward movement in Russia).
  • General population drifts towards favored regions are observed globally, contributing to uneven population distribution and regional disparities (e.g., southward movement in Britain and westward movement in Germany and the United States).

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATIONS

  • International migrations have a significant demographic impact, influencing population gains or losses in countries, though natural increase often surpasses net migration.
  • Governments focus more on regulating migrations than on fertility control, but international migration statistics are often inadequate and diverse in tabulation methods.
  • Long-term (permanent) and short-term (temporary) migrants, visitors, and residents, differentiated by age, sex, marital status, and nationality, are crucial for understanding migration effects.
  • Economic motives, including contrasts in living standards and land availability, drive international migrations, though wealthy countries may also attract migrants from poorer nations.
  • Demographic factors like population pressure are key determinants, historically stimulating migrations from countries like Ireland, Italy, and Southeast Europe.
  • Political factors increasingly influence international migrations, often surpassing individual choice, leading to large population exchanges during conflicts or under political regimes.
  • Consequences of international migrations include demographic shifts in age, sex, and economic compositions in both sending and receiving countries.
  • Migrations can act as safety valves in densely populated, underdeveloped countries and stimulate economic development, as seen in Italy.
  • Immigration policies vary widely; historically, countries like Australia and the United States favored selective immigration, restricting entry based on ethnicity.
  • International migrations affect wage rates, unemployment, per capita output, living standards, and international payments, but isolating their specific influence is complex due to multiple influencing factors.
  • Social consequences vary; immigrants’ integration into community life influences their societal impact, prompting dispersion policies in receiving countries.
  • Great trans-oceanic migrations from Europe in the 19th and early 20th centuries were substantial, driven by economic opportunities and population pressures.
  • Post-World War I, European migration declined due to restrictions, economic instability, and shifting global dynamics.
  • World War II displaced millions, reshaping migration patterns in Europe and Asia, with significant migrations between India and Pakistan.
  • Displaced persons and refugees post-World War II contributed to renewed overseas migrations, influencing population growth in countries like Australia.
  • Europe remains a significant source of international migrants, though migration patterns are now more politically influenced than in the past.
  • Asian migrations have been limited by discriminatory immigration policies, despite population challenges within Asian countries.
  • International tourist flows have increased dramatically post-World War II, facilitated by advancements in transportation and tourism infrastructure.

CH X. POPULATION GROWTH

Measures of Population Growth and Replacement

  • “Population Growth” is preferred over “Population Change” because few national populations are declining; most are rapidly growing, posing a major global issue.
  • Within developed countries, many districts experience population decline despite national growth trends.
  • Annual rate of increase is a common measure using the formula: (P1 – P0) / P0 * 100, useful for assessing data accuracy.
  • Natural increase is births minus deaths, with the rate derived from crude birth and death rates; natural decrease occurs in rural areas of developed countries.
  • Natural increase rates imperfectly express growth, ignoring age composition and mortality specifics.
  • Proposed refinements like the potential natural increase rate consider life expectancy and average age of deceased.
  • Demographers often study closed populations with no external migrations to understand vital processes, despite rarity.
  • Stable populations, studied by Lotka, maintain constant fertility and mortality, tending towards fixed age structures.
  • Stationary populations have equal fertility and mortality rates, resulting in constant age structure and population.
  • Quasi-stable population theory by Coale and Bourgeois-Pichat uses age distributions to infer fertility trends in developing countries.
  • Reproduction rates like the gross reproduction rate by Kuczynski measure fertility trends, aiming for generational replacement.
  • Net reproduction rate adjusts for mortality, offering a refined measure of fertility trends.
  • Marriage-standardized reproduction rates account for varying marriage durations and fertility rates.
  • Reproduction rates indicate current trends, not future projections, often challenged by statistical complexities.
  • Veyret-Vemer’s index of vitality integrates age structure, fertility, mortality, and old-age ratios to assess demographic vitality.
  • Regional comparisons using the old-age index show varying demographic vitality across countries.
  • Analysis of generations is crucial for understanding replacement dynamics compared to mortality studies.
  • Data limitations complicate detailed analysis of fertility and reproduction rates.

Population Projections

  • Predicting future population growth is crucial but challenging due to complex influences on fertility, mortality, and migrations.
  • Population forecasts and projections differ slightly: the former considers social and economic factors, while the latter focuses purely on demographic aspects.
  • Mathematical validity of projections hinges on accurate assumptions about fertility, mortality, marriage, and migration trends.
  • Historical inaccuracies in population projections often stem from incorrect assumptions, particularly regarding fertility decline.
  • Mortality trends are relatively more predictable in the short term, but advancements in medicine could alter long-term projections.
  • Marriage rates are influenced by population structure, making assumptions about them less difficult.
  • Migration remains an unpredictable factor, varying significantly across countries and over time.
  • Comprehensive projections explore multiple scenarios with varying assumptions to illustrate potential demographic outcomes.
  • Projections are often prepared for short-term analysis despite potential misinterpretations over longer periods.
  • Past projections, such as those for the United States, often underestimated population growth due to unforeseen increases in fertility.
  • United Nations’ population projections in the 1950s were inaccurate due to initial high census figures and unexpected mortality declines.
  • Errors in current calculations can lead to substantial discrepancies in projected population figures, highlighting the sensitivity of long-term forecasts.
  • Global population projections from the 1960s offered high, medium, and low estimates based on assumptions about fertility decline timings.
  • Geography does not specifically affect population projections, but regional factors can influence demographic trends and forecasting accuracy.

Population Theories

  • Theories of population growth categorized into biological, cultural, and economic perspectives by Coontz.
  • Biological theories suggest human population growth follows laws akin to plant and animal growth, influenced by factors like nutrition and density.
  • Pearl and Reed’s logistic curve model, based on Verhulst’s earlier work, proposes cyclical population growth tied to economic changes.
  • Cultural theories highlight human character and culture’s impact on fertility, linking declining fertility in advanced nations to desires for social status, luxuries, and women’s rising status.
  • Increased education and urbanization are cited as factors contributing to fertility decline, though not universally applicable.
  • Economic theories stress the role of economic relations in population dynamics, where labor demand influences fertility rates, migrations, and population distribution.
  • Neo-classical and Marxist-Leninist economists differ but agree on labor demand as a primary driver of population changes.
  • Fertility fluctuations are seen as responses to economic conditions, reflecting shifts in labor demand and social change.

Attitudes to Population Growth

  • Diversity in theories of population growth stems from differences in attitudes and experiences.
  • Two main attitudes: opposition (fear of overpopulation, “population explosion”, advocating for population control for better living standards, often associated with pessimists like Malthus).
  • Reverend Thomas Malthus (1798) argued population tends to double every 25 years geometrically while food supply increases arithmetically; proposed moral restraint and destructive checks to curb growth.
  • Neo-Malthusian movement (late 19th century) focused on birth control methods against Malthus’s principles.
  • Optimistic attitude (populationists) believes population will self-regulate naturally; criticized pessimistic views as immoral and excessively individualistic.
  • Marxists critique Malthusians, attributing overpopulation to societal resource distribution issues rather than scarcity.
  • Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy viewed population growth from expansionist perspectives.
  • 1960s saw a reaction against extremist views, with success of family planning programs in developing countries and contrasting birth rates in communist states challenging Marxist views.
  • World Population Conference (1965, Belgrade) advocated a moderate approach recognizing global population issues without universal solutions.

Population Policies

  • Governments historically favored population growth, but recent trends include anti-natal policies in capitalist Japan, communist China, India, Pakistan, Ceylon, Korea, Taiwan, Egypt, and Eastern Europe.
  • Modern states, especially totalitarian ones, influence population growth through direct measures on fertility, mortality, and migration, and indirectly through economic policies.
  • Effectiveness of population policies is tied to their alignment with broader governmental strategies, though assessing direct impacts remains challenging.
  • Pro-fertility measures include family allowances, marriage loans, restricting birth control sales, illegalizing abortion, and prenatal and postnatal care.
  • Anti-natal measures involve legalizing abortion, birth control propaganda, and sterilization campaigns.
  • France adopted pro-fertility measures to counter declining birth rates, potentially influenced by economic expansion.
  • Japan implemented an anti-natal policy post-World War II due to overpopulation, legalizing sterilization, abortion under certain conditions, and promoting contraception.
  • China experienced fluctuations in birth control policies, including campaigns against early marriages.
  • Underdeveloped countries, starting with India in 1950, began adopting family planning programs to curb population growth.
  • Global consensus on death control includes disease prevention, sanitation, hygiene improvement, and elderly care, but disruptions like war and genocide impact mortality control efforts.
  • International migration is restricted due to racism, nationalism, political ideologies, and increased controls in the 20th century.

World Population Growth

  • Current world population is 3600 million, only 4% of estimated 77,000 million in the last 600,000 years.
  • Population growth accelerated significantly from the mid-17th century.
  • Annual growth rate doubled between 1650 and 1850, then doubled again by the 1920s, and again since then.
  • By 1970, annual growth rate reached 2.0%.
  • Population more than doubled during the 20th century, with a rise of nearly 500 million in the 1950s alone.
  • Annual increase now exceeds 70 million people.
  • Projections by the United Nations suggest 5000 to 7000 million people by A.D. 2000.
  • Asian population, including Russia, has been the most influential on global population growth.
  • Europe’s population growth rate has decreased significantly in the 20th century.
  • Americas and Africa have seen substantial absolute increases, surpassing Europe.
  • Oceania contributes minimally to global population growth.
  • Europe had the smallest annual population increase (0.8%) in the 1950s but still added 64 million.
  • Asia had the highest rate of increase, adding nearly 300 million, with South-Central and East Asia showing significant growth.
  • Uncertainty surrounds population data for China and Africa, despite rapid growth.
  • Latin America’s population growth exceeded North America’s by the end of the 1950s.
  • Oceania experienced rapid growth influenced by migration, contributing 30% to global growth.

Types of Population Growth

  • Population growth stages are not universally rigid; demographic transition varies between developed and developing countries.
  • Classification based on European experience includes:
    1. High stationary phase with high fertility and mortality, slow growth or stationary population.
    2. Early expanding phase with high fertility and declining mortality, causing rapid growth.
    3. Late expanding phase with declining fertility and mortality, rapid population increase.
    4. Low stationary phase with low fertility and mortality, resulting in a stable population.
    5. Declining phase due to fertility falling below mortality.
  • United Nations classification (late 1950s to 1960s) categorizes:
    1. High birth and death rates, typical in least-developed tropical Africa.
    2. High birth rates and declining, relatively high death rates in parts of South, Southeast, and East Asia.
    3. High birth rates and fairly low death rates in tropical Latin America, often exceeding 3% growth annually.
    4. Declining birth rates and low death rates seen in Chile, Cuba, Ceylon, and Malaysia.
    5. Low or fluctuating birth and death rates observed in most of Europe, North America, and Japan.
  • Rapid population changes in developing countries make long-term classifications less applicable.

Population Growth in Underdeveloped Countries

  • European populations historically grew at lower rates compared to current rates in underdeveloped countries.
  • Peak natural increase in England and Wales was 14 per thousand, in Scandinavia 13; underdeveloped countries today exceed this twofold.
  • Reduction in mortality key reason; e.g., Mauritius life expectancy rose from 33 to 51 in 8 years post-WWII, faster than Sweden’s 130-year progress.
  • Campaign against malaria in Ceylon reduced death rate from 22 to 10 per thousand during 1945-1952.
  • Decline in mortality attributed to modern medicine and public health measures, though economic progress may also play a role.
  • No clear correlations between economic and demographic growth; high population growth in areas like Latin America hasn’t led to comparable economic advance.
  • Population growth may delay economic development (e.g., mechanization) and perpetuate poverty, widening gap between rich and poor nations.
  • Japan, outside European tradition, managed demographic growth stages similarly through industrialization and population control.
  • High population growth rates in poor countries complicate economic solutions; development and industrialization challenges intensify with soaring population totals.
  • Family limitation seen as urgent solution; birth control initiatives face challenges (e.g., India), but more countries recognize the need for fertility control policies.
  • Education crucial in promoting social improvement and reducing fertility, observed in advanced countries.
  • Industriahzed countries urged to support poorer nations in achieving better balance between economic and demographic growth.

Local Population Changes

  • Geographers prioritize local population changes over national trends.
  • Focus on interpreting patterns of growth and decline, emphasizing migration and natural change.
  • Migration’s relative importance varies with area scale; more significant in smaller units.
  • Webb’s Cartesian coordinate graph categorizes population change into eight types based on natural and migrational components.
  • Modernization increases human mobility and diversifies population characteristics.
  • Age structures vary widely; high fertility areas have fewer deaths, high mortality areas have fewer births.
  • Old age structures in advanced countries, especially rural areas, contribute to natural decrease.

CH XI. POPULATION AND RESOURCES

Evaluations and Indices

  • Population distribution and growth raise questions about resource utilization.
  • Subjective judgments determine if an area is underpopulated or overpopulated.
  • Resources satisfy human needs and vary with economic and cultural factors.
  • Population/resource ratios are subjective, influenced by political and religious beliefs.
  • Evaluations consider per capita income, employment levels, and cultural factors.
  • No simple indices exist for optimum, overpopulated, or underpopulated conditions.
  • Factors like per capita income, employment, migration, consumption patterns, life expectancy, trade changes, and population density are considered.
  • Concepts of optimal population change over time and vary by region.
  • Population movements and technological advancements impact these concepts.
  • Technical progress varies globally and doesn’t uniformly affect population/resource dynamics.

Optimum Population

  • Cantillon, an early-eighteenth-century mercantilist, introduced the concept of optimum population size for highest living standards.
  • He considered customs, traditions, and resources in determining population limits.
  • Population increase can either raise or lower living standards depending on social and economic conditions.
  • In Britain, 10 million population under current conditions would lower living standards; 100 million would strain resources.
  • The economic optimum population aims at maximum per capita output under given conditions.
  • Optimum population can vary for military power and social welfare, influenced by political factors.
  • Criteria for optimum population include high living standards, full employment, rational resource development, and balanced demographics.
  • Optima vary across time and space based on state size, geography, social structure, technical progress, and communication quality.
  • Specialized economies and isolated communities face greater risks from population growth, economic crises, or natural disasters.
  • Optimal population concepts gained traction in North-West Europe and the United States between the world wars, criticized by communist writers as Malthusian and individualistic.
  • Some demographers find it impractical to calculate optima due to dynamic economic and societal changes.
  • Debate exists on whether population size truly impacts overall societal welfare or if it receives disproportionate attention.

Overpopulation

  • Overpopulation occurs when population exceeds available or potential resources.
  • It can result from population growth outpacing resource development or from declining resources relative to population.
  • Factors contributing to overpopulation include increased population, resource decline, reduced demand for labor, and lagging growth in tertiary services.
  • Absolute overpopulation occurs when production limits are reached despite low living standards.
  • Relative overpopulation indicates inadequate production for the population, although increased production is feasible.
  • Overpopulation manifests at different levels: rural, industrial, regional, and national.
  • Rural overpopulation is prominent in densely populated underdeveloped regions like South-East Asia, characterized by high fertility, limited mechanization, and natural checks like famines and epidemics.
  • Industrial overpopulation is less visible due to labor flexibility but arises from technological redundancies or industry declines.
  • Regions reliant on few industries can experience regional overpopulation during economic downturns, seen historically in inter-war Britain and modern Belgium, Italy, and Japan.
  • Disparities in population density are stark in Indonesia, with overpopulation in Java contrasting with underpopulation in Kalimantan and other islands.
  • Islands with national status often face severe overpopulation challenges, exacerbated by limited escape routes and high population density.
  • Overpopulation primarily impacts the marginalized: landless rural populations and unskilled industrial workers.
  • Communist perspectives view overpopulation as a consequence of unplanned capitalist societies, questioning solutions even in planned economies like communist China.

Maximum Population

  • Overpopulation relates to the concept of a maximum population limit where land can no longer sustain without lowering living standards and increasing mortality.
  • In a primitive subsistence economy, achieving an absolute maximum population where birth and death rates equalize is conceivable.
  • Estimating an absolute maximum world population is impractical due to evolving human techniques and needs.
  • A relative or realized maximum population is more practical, observed historically in countries like Italy and Ireland where emigration alleviated pressures.
  • Modern economies may not face an absolute maximum due to technological advancements and economic diversification.

Underpopulation

  • Underpopulation occurs where a population is too small to fully utilize its resources without lowering living standards or increasing unemployment.
  • Absolute underpopulation is rare except in isolated populations unable to maintain normal demographic replacement or economic production.
  • Relative underpopulation is common in southern continents where resources are underdeveloped.
  • Areas with high living standards and extensive farming, like the Prairies, parts of Australia, and New Zealand, experience underpopulation.
  • Pastoral nomads in arid regions and shifting cultivators in places like Zambia also face underpopulation due to low technical levels.
  • Addressing regional underpopulation in advanced economies, especially rural areas, often requires government intervention or colonization efforts.
  • Examples include Italy’s breakup of latifundia and Egypt’s agrarian reform to reduce local underpopulation.
  • Socialist economies claim to overcome regional inequalities, including underpopulation.
  • Backward societies can resolve underpopulation through improved medical facilities, diets, and reduced mortality rates.

Minimum Population

  • Minimum size of population is studied in isolated communities like islands, mountain valleys, tropical forests, desert oases, and Arctic regions.
  • Biological minimum estimated by Sauvy for demographic replacement in monogamous societies is 500 persons, allowing for five marriages and 20 births annually.
  • Polygamous groups may have a slightly lower biological minimum but face increased risks of disease, adverse age structures, and skewed sex ratios.
  • Economic minimum is more common in advanced societies, representing the smallest number needed for division of labor.
  • Below the economic minimum, specialist occupations become unsustainable, leading to outward migration.
  • In Western Isles of Scotland, departure of young people often reduces population below the biological minimum.
  • Departure of essential professionals like doctors indicates attainment of the economic minimum in a community.

The World Situation

  • Enormous literature devoted to adequacy of resources for world population growth.
  • Differences in opinion influenced by social and political ideals and views on population increase.
  • Malthusians and neo-Malthusians pessimistic about potential population explosion outpacing production.
  • Concerns include widespread death control over birth control, encouragement of population growth in backward countries.
  • Fear of global inundation by Asians, increase in hungry populations, decline in living standards, widening gap between rich and poor nations.
  • Doubts about world food supplies matching population growth.
  • Negative areas (mountains, deserts, jungles, permafrost) seen as incapable of significant contribution.
  • Low-income countries in Southeast Asia viewed as too demographically fertile and densely populated for immediate high living standards.
  • Post-World War II views range from sublime optimism to imminent doom regarding food supply challenges.
  • Guarded optimism emerged in late 1960s due to early successes of the “green revolution.”
  • Diverse opinions on extending Earth’s cultivated area.
  • Social institutions blamed for inconsistencies between population and resources.
  • Critiques of colonialism and class structures; socialist and Marxist demographers advocate social and economic revolutions to reduce fertility and raise living standards.
  • Ackerman’s five-fold classification of population/resource regions based on ratios and technology availability:
    1. United States type
    2. European type
    3. Egyptian type
    4. Brazilian type
    5. Arctic-Desert type
  • Ackerman’s classification useful but limited for local studies due to dynamism of population, resources, technology, and economic variables.
  • Indicators of population pressure on resources include soil erosion, shortening of fallows, unemployment, underemployment, out-migration, and hunger, but none universally satisfactory.
  • Population pressure contextually meaningful based on cultural, political, and economic organization of societies.
  • Local remedies for pressure often economic or social rather than demographic.
  • Geographers play crucial role in analyzing population pressure on resources at local level due to varied global distribution, political fragmentation, natural resource endowments, technical skills, living standards, and diverse ideals.

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

You cannot copy content of this page

Scroll to Top

Refund & Cancellation - Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy