The world in 1914: outbreak of the First World War

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Book No. – 52 (History)

Book Name – Modern World History (Norman Lowe)

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1. PROLOGUE

2. THE WORLD IN 1914

2.1. Europe still dominated the rest of the world in 1914

2.2. The political systems of these world powers varied widely

2.3. Imperial expansion after 1880

2.4. Europe had divided itself into two alliance systems

2.5. Causes of friction

3. EVENTS LEADING UP TO THE OUTBREAK OF WAR

3.1. The Moroccan Crisis (1905-6)

3.2. The British agreement with Russia (1907)

3.3. The Bosnia Crisis (1908)

3.4. The Agadir Crisis (1911)

3.5. The First Balkan War (1912)

3.6. The Second Balkan War (1913)

3.7. The assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand

4. WHAT CAUSED THE WAR, AND WHO WAS TO BLAME?

4.1. The alliance system or ‘armed camps’ made war inevitable

4.2. A ‘tragedy of miscalculation’

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LANGUAGE

The World in 1914: Outbreak of the First World War

Norman Lowe

Chapter – 1

Harshit Sharma

Alumnus (BHU)

PROLOGUE

5 August 1914: German assault troops, having entered Belgium two days earlier, converged on the town of Liege, expecting little resistance.
To their surprise, they were halted by determined fire from the town’s outlying forts.
This was a setback for the Germans; control of Liege was essential for their main operation against France.
Germans resorted to siege tactics, using heavy howitzers to fire shells from 12,000 feet, shattering the forts’ armour-plating.
Though strong, the Belgian forts could not withstand the heavy bombardment for long.
On 13 August, the first fort surrendered; three days later, Liege fell under German control.
This was the first major engagement of World War I, marking the beginning of a new era in European and world history.

THE WORLD IN 1914

Europe still dominated the rest of the world in 1914

Most world-shaping decisions were made in the capitals of Europe.
Germany was the leading power in Europe, militarily and economically.
Germany overtook Britain in production of pig-iron and steel, though not in coal.
France, Belgium, Italy, and Austria-Hungary (Habsburg Empire) were behind.
Russia’s industry was expanding but remained too backward to challenge Germany and Britain.
Outside Europe, the most spectacular industrial progress occurred in the USA.
In 1914, the USA produced more coal, pig-iron, and steel than Germany or Britain, and ranked as a world power.
Japan modernized rapidly and became a power after defeating Russia in the Russo-Japanese War (1904-5).

The political systems of these world powers varied widely

USA, Britain, and France had democratic forms of government with parliaments consisting of elected representatives; these parliaments played an important role in running the country.
Some systems appeared democratic but had limitations: Germany had an elected Reichstag, but real power lay with the Chancellor and Kaiser.
Italy was a monarchy with an elected parliament, but the franchise was limited to wealthy people.
Japan had an elected lower house, but the franchise was restricted, with most power held by the emperor and privy council.
Russia and Austria-Hungary had autocratic rulers (Tsar of Russia and Emperor of Austria), where parliaments could only advise; rulers could ignore them and act as they wished.

Imperial expansion after 1880

European powers engaged in a great burst of imperialist expansion after 1880.
Imperialism refers to building an empire by seizing territory overseas.
Most of Africa was taken over by European states in what became known as ‘the Scramble for Africa’.
The main goal of imperialism was to gain control of new markets and raw materials.
There was also intervention in the weakening Chinese Empire, with European powers, the USA, and Japan forcing China to grant trading concessions at different times.
Exasperation with the incompetence of the government led the Chinese to overthrow the Manchu dynasty and establish a republic in 1911.

Europe had divided itself into two alliance systems

Triple Alliance: Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy.
Triple Entente: Britain, France, Russia.
Japan and Britain signed an alliance in 1902.
Friction between the two main groups, called ‘the armed camps’, brought Europe to the verge of war several times since 1900.

Causes of friction

Naval rivalry between Britain and Germany created friction in Europe.
France resented the loss of Alsace-Lorraine to Germany after the Franco-Prussian War (1871).
Germany accused Britain, Russia, and France of trying to encircle them.
Germany disappointed with Weltpolitik (expansionist policies) results; small empire compared to other European powers, not rewarding economically.
Russia suspicious of Austrian ambitions in the Balkans and growing strength of Germany.
Serbian nationalism was a dangerous source of friction, aiming to unite Serbs and Croats in a Greater Serbia.
Serbian nationalists resent Austria-Hungary occupying Bosnia (1878 Treaty of Berlin).
King Alexander of Serbia seen as a traitor and was murdered in 1903 by army officers.
Peter Karageorgevic became king, shifting Serbia‘s policy to pro-Russian and ambition to form Yugoslavia.
Many Serbs and Croats lived within Austria-Hungary borders, threatening its unity.
The breakup of Habsburg Empire would occur if Serbs and Croats left, triggering independence demands from other nationalities.
Some Austrians favored a preventive war to destroy Serbia before it became too strong.
Austrians resented Russian support for Serbia.
Tensions and resentments led to a series of events that caused the outbreak of war in July 1914.

EVENTS LEADING UP TO THE OUTBREAK OF WAR

The Moroccan Crisis (1905-6)

Germans attempted to expand their empire and test the Anglo-French ‘Entente Cordiale’ (1904).
Entente Cordiale: France recognizes Britain’s position in Egypt, Britain supports French takeover of Morocco.
Morocco: One of the last areas in Africa not controlled by a European power.
Germans announced support for the Sultan of Morocco to maintain independence and demanded an international conference.
The conference was held at Algeciras in southern Spain (January 1906).
Britain feared that German influence in Morocco would lead to virtual German control and a step toward Weltpolitik.
Britain, having just signed the Entente Cordiale with France, led the opposition against Germany at the conference.
Germans underestimated the Entente, due to long-standing hostility between Britain and France.
To the Germans’ surprise, Britain, Russia, Italy, and Spain supported French control over Morocco’s bank and police.
The conference was a diplomatic defeat for Germany.
The crisis led to Anglo-French military conversations, signaling a strong alliance between Britain and France.

The British agreement with Russia (1907)

Germany viewed the Anglo-Russian rapprochement as a hostile move.
In 1894, Russia signed an alliance with France, a partner of Britain in the ‘Entente Cordiale’.
Britain had seen Russia as corrupt, anti-democratic, and a threat to British interests in the Far East and India.
The Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905) weakened Russia, suggesting it was no longer a major military threat.
The 1905 Russian Revolution weakened Russia internally.
Russia sought to end rivalry with Britain and attract British investment for industrial modernization.
In October 1905, Tsar Nicholas II granted freedom of speech and an elected parliament, improving relations with Britain.
Agreement was reached over Persia, Afghanistan, and Tibet.
The agreement was not a military alliance or necessarily anti-Germany, but Germany saw it as evidence of a plan to ‘encircle’ them.

The Bosnia Crisis (1908)

Crisis over Bosnia heightened tension between Austria-Hungary and Serbia.
Congress of Berlin (1878) decided Bosnia should remain part of Turkey, but Austria-Hungary could administer it.
In 1908, the Young Turks in Turkey wanted to assert control over Bosnia, resenting the Austrian presence.
Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia in 1908, deliberately antagonizing Serbia, which had hoped to take control due to the significant Serb population.
Serbia appealed to Russia for help, expecting support from France and Britain.
When Germany pledged support to Austria in case of war, France withdrew, unwilling to get involved in the Balkans.
Britain protested to Austria-Hungary but avoided breaching relations with Germany.
Russia, still recovering from defeat by Japan, refrained from conflict without ally support.
Austria-Hungary kept Bosnia, causing a bitter hostility with Serbia, which later triggered war.
Russia embarked on a massive military build-up, modernizing its army and improving its railway system for faster mobilization, preparing to assist Serbia if needed.

The Agadir Crisis (1911)

Crisis in Morocco arose when French troops occupied Fez to suppress a rebellion against the Sultan.
It appeared the French were about to annex Morocco.
Germany sent the Panther gunboat to Agadir to pressure France for compensation, possibly the French Congo.
Britain was concerned about Germany acquiring Agadir, which could be used as a naval base threatening British trade routes.
Lloyd George, Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, warned Germany in a speech that Britain would not allow its interests to be compromised.
France stood firm, refusing major concessions, and the German gunboat was eventually removed.
Germany recognized the French protectorate over Morocco in exchange for two strips of territory in the French Congo.
The outcome was a triumph for the Entente powers, but Germany became increasingly anti-British.
By the end of 1911, Britain had built eight Dreadnought battleships, while Germany had built only four, increasing tensions in the naval race.

The First Balkan War (1912)

Balkan League (Serbia, Greece, Montenegro, Bulgaria) attacked Turkey to seize more land.
These countries had once been part of the Ottoman Empire, and now that Turkey was weak, they took the opportunity to acquire land.
They captured most of Turkey’s remaining European territory.
Sir Edward Grey, Britain’s Foreign Secretary, and Germany arranged a peace conference in London to prevent the conflict from spreading.
The settlement divided former Turkish lands among the Balkan states.
Serbia was dissatisfied with their gains, seeking Albania for access to the sea.
Austria, with support from Germany and Britain, insisted that Albania should be an independent state, preventing Serbia from becoming stronger.

**The Balkans in 1913 showing changes from the Balkan Wars (1912-13)**

The Second Balkan War (1913)

Bulgaria was dissatisfied with its gains from the peace settlement, blaming Serbia.
Bulgaria hoped to acquire Macedonia, but most of it went to Serbia.
Bulgaria attacked Serbia, but Greece, Romania, and Turkey supported Serbia.
Bulgaria was defeated, and by the Treaty of Bucharest (1913), it forfeited most of its gains from the first war.
Anglo-German influence restrained Austria-Hungary from escalating the war and supporting Bulgaria against Serbia.
Consequences of the Balkan Wars were serious: Serbia became stronger and sought to cause trouble among Serbsand Croats within Austria-Hungary.
Austria-Hungary was determined to end Serbia’s ambitions.
Germany interpreted Grey’s cooperation as a sign that Britain might detach from France and Russia.

The assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo on 28 June 1914 was the immediate cause of Austria-Hungary declaring war on Serbia, leading to the First World War.
Gavrilo Princip, a Serb terrorist, shot and killed the Archduke and his wife.
Austria-Hungary blamed the Serb government and issued a harsh ultimatum.
Serbia accepted most demands, but Austria-Hungary, with German support, sought to use the incident as an excuse for war.
On 28 July, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia.
Russia, supporting Serbia, ordered a general mobilization on 29 July.
Germany demanded the cancellation of mobilization on 31 July; when Russia refused, Germany declared war on Russia (1 August) and on France (3 August).
When German troops entered Belgium to invade France, Britain (committed to defending Belgian neutrality since 1839) demanded their withdrawal.
When Germany ignored the demand, Britain entered the war on 4 August.
On 6 August, Austria-Hungary declared war on Russia.
Other countries joined the war later.
The war had profound effects on the future of the world, with Germany losing its dominance in Europe, and Europenever regaining its global supremacy.

WHAT CAUSED THE WAR, AND WHO WAS TO BLAME?

The assassination in Sarajevo led to the outbreak of World War I, but historians disagree on the reasons for its escalation.
Some blame Austria-Hungary for being the first aggressor by declaring war on Serbia.
Some blame Russia for being the first to order full mobilization.
Some blame Germany for supporting Austria-Hungary.
Others blame Britain for not clarifying its support for France, which could have prevented Germany from declaring war on France.
The quarrel between Austria-Hungary and Serbia was the spark for the war, which had been escalating since 1908.
Austria-Hungary used the assassination as an excuse for a preventive war against Serbia to curb Serb and Slav nationalist ambitions for a Yugoslavia, fearing it would cause the collapse of the Habsburg Empire.
Austria-Hungary likely hoped the war would remain localized, like the Balkan Wars.
The Austro-Serb quarrel explains the war’s outbreak, but not why it escalated into a world war.
Various reasons have been suggested for the escalation of the war.

The alliance system or ‘armed camps’ made war inevitable

George Kennan, an American diplomat and historian, believed the 1894 alliance between France and Russia sealed Europe’s fate, as tensions between the opposing camps grew.
Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Germany found themselves in situations where war seemed the only way to save face.
Many historians argue this explanation is unconvincing; there had been many crises since 1904 without leading to major war.
Alliances were not binding:
- France did not help Russia during the Russo-Japanese War (1904-5).
- France did not support Russia when it protested the Austrian annexation of Bosnia.
- Austria took no interest in Germany’s attempts to prevent France from taking over Morocco (Morocco and Agadir Crises, 1906 and 1911).
- Germany restrained Austria-Hungary from attacking Serbia during the Second Balkan War.
Italy, a member of the Triple Alliance, was friendly with France and Britain, and entered the war against Germanyin 1915.
No power declared war due to one of these treaties of alliance.

Colonial rivalry in Africa and the Far East

The argument that German disappointment with imperial gains and resentment at the success of other powers caused the war is unconvincing.
Although there had been disputes, they had been settled without war.
In early July 1914, Anglo-German relations were good, with a favourable agreement reached for Germany over a possible partition of Portuguese colonies in Africa.
The side effect of colonial rivalry that caused dangerous friction was naval rivalry.

The naval race between Britain and Germany

The German government was influenced by Alfred Mahan, who believed sea power was key to building a great empire.
Germany needed a larger navy to challenge Britain, the world’s greatest sea power.
Starting with Admiral Tirpitz’s Navy Law of 1897, Germany made a determined effort to expand its navy.
The rapid growth of the German fleet did not initially worry the British, who had a large lead.
The introduction of the British ‘Dreadnought’ battleship in 1906 made other battleships obsolete, allowing Germany to build Dreadnoughts on equal terms with Britain.
The resulting naval race became the main bone of contention between Britain and Germany until 1914.
For many British, the new German navy suggested that Germany intended to make war against Britain.
In 1913, Germany reduced naval spending to focus more on strengthening its army.
By 1914, Winston Churchill noted that naval rivalry had ceased to be a cause of friction, as Britain could not be overtaken in terms of capital ships.

Economic rivalry

Some argue that the desire for economic mastery caused German businessmen to want war with Britain, which owned about half the world’s merchant ships in 1914.
Marxist historians support this theory, blaming the war on the capitalist system.
Critics argue that Germany was already on the path to economic victory.
A leading German industrialist remarked in 1913 that Germany would be the unchallenged economic master of Europe with three or four more years of peace.
According to this argument, the last thing Germany needed was a major war.

Russia made war more likely by supporting Serbia

Russian backing likely made Serbia more reckless in its anti-Austrian policies.
Russia was the first to order general mobilization, which provoked Germany to mobilize.
Russia was worried about Bulgaria and Turkey being under German influence, which could give Germany and Austria control over the Dardanelles.
The Dardanelles was a key Russian trade route, and its control by Germany and Austria could strangle Russian trade.
Russia felt threatened and saw the war as a struggle for survival once Austria declared war on Serbia.
Russia’s prestige as leader of the Slavs was at risk if they failed to support Serbia.
The Russian government might have seen war as a way to divert attention from domestic problems, but also recognized the risk of a dangerous gamble.
Tsar’s minister Durnovo warned that a long war could collapse the tsarist regime.
Austria may have hoped for Russian neutrality, but should have realized how difficult it would be for Russia to stay neutral.

German backing for Austria was crucially important

In 1913, Germany restrained Austria from declaring war on Serbia, but in 1914, they encouraged Austria to attack and promised unconditional support (a blank cheque).
The question of why Germany’s policy towards Austria changed has led to great controversy.
After the Versailles Treaty, most historians blamed Germany for the war, but opinion later shifted, with some blaming other powers too.
In 1967, historian Fritz Fischer argued that Germany should take most of the blame, claiming they provoked war with Russia, Britain, and France to dominate economically and politically, and to deal with domestic tensions.
German Socialist Party (SPD) gained a third of the seats in the Reichstag in 1912, leading to political tension with the Kaiser and Chancellor. A victorious war seemed a way to suppress the SPD and maintain Kaiser and aristocratic power.
Fischer’s theory was based on the diary of Admiral von Muller, who mentioned a war council in 1912, where Moltkebelieved war was unavoidable.
Some historians, like H. W. Koch, rejected Fischer’s theory, pointing out that nothing came from the war council.
Historians in Communist East Germany supported Fischer, as his theory blamed capitalism for the war.
Other historians emphasized the time factor: Germany felt encircled and threatened by British naval power and Russian military expansion.
German expansion was hindered by opposition from the Reichstag, which refused to approve tax increases.
Russia was strengthened by French loans.
Von Jagow, German Foreign Minister, reported that Moltke stated that war was necessary to defeat growing powers before they became too strong.
German generals believed a preventive war was necessary before 1914, or Russia would be too powerful.
Some historians reject both Fischer’s theory and the time factor, suggesting Germany did not want a major war, and that the Kaiser and Bethmann-Hollweg miscalculated, thinking a strong line with Austria would deter Russia.

The mobilization plans of the great powers

Gerhard Ritter, a leading historian, believed the Schlieffen Plan, created by Count von Schlieffen in 1905-6, was risky, inflexible, and led to disaster for Germany and Europe.
The plan gave the impression that Germany was ruled by unscrupulous militarists.
A. J. P. Taylor argued that the Schlieffen Plan accelerated events, leaving almost no time for negotiation.
The plan assumed France would join Russia, and German forces would be sent via Belgium to attack France and defeat it in six weeks, then shift to face Russia, whose mobilization was expected to be slow.
Moltke demanded immediate mobilization when Russia ordered general mobilization, to execute the Schlieffen Plan.
Russian mobilization did not necessarily mean war, and their troops could be halted at the border.
The Schlieffen Plan led to the first aggressive act outside the Balkans when German troops crossed the Belgian frontier on 4 August, violating Belgian neutrality.
The Kaiser and Bethmann tried to avoid war and urged Austria to negotiate with Serbia (30 July), suggesting partial mobilization against Russia.
However, Moltke insisted on the full Schlieffen Plan, saying there was no time to change troop movements.
The generals seemed to have taken control, pushing for the plan regardless of political efforts.
Germany had no quarrel with France at this point, making the situation more complex.
Terence Zuber (2002) challenged this theory, suggesting the Schlieffen Plan was only one of several alternatives considered by the German high command.
One alternative planned for a Russian attack and French invasion at the same time, with forces shifted east while holding off the French.
Schlieffen conducted a military exercise testing this alternative in 1905.
Zuber argued that Schlieffen never committed to one rigid plan and always expected a French attack to begin the war.
After the war, Germany blamed its defeat on the rigid Schlieffen Plan, which Zuber claimed had never existed in the form Germany later described.

A ‘tragedy of miscalculation’

L. C. F. Turner, Australian historian, argued that war was not inevitable and was caused by a tragedy of miscalculation.
Leading rulers and politicians were incompetent and made bad mistakes:
- Austria miscalculated by thinking Russia wouldn’t support Serbia.
- Germany made a mistake by promising unconditional support to Austria, risking major war.
- Russia and Germany miscalculated by assuming mobilization wouldn’t necessarily mean war.
Generals, especially Moltke, miscalculated by sticking rigidly to the Schlieffen Plan, believing it would bring a quick victory.
Bethmann expressed confusion, saying, “Oh—if I only knew!” when asked how war began.
Fritz Fischer’s theory is widely accepted, claiming that Germany’s leaders deliberately provoked war to secure their survival before Russia’s military strength grew.
In the book The Origins of World War I (2002), Richard Hamilton and Holger H. Herwig reject various causes (alliances, mobilization plans) and conclude Germany was mainly responsible.
German leaders believed they had to act before Russia’s armament plans were completed, viewing the war as a survival strategy, not for world domination.
Moltke believed the war was necessary to fulfill Germany’s preordained role in civilization.
Holger Afflerbach and David Stevenson edited An Improbable War (2007), which discussed the probability and inevitability of war, concluding that it was possible, not inevitable.
Samuel Williamson believed Austria-Hungary had no prior intention of attacking Serbia, and the assassinations of Franz Ferdinand were the decisive moment for war.
German pressure and promises of support were not critical; Austria-Hungary made its own decisions.
John Rohl maintained that Germany deliberately started the war, with Wilhelm II bearing primary responsibility due to his duplicity and recklessness.
William Mulligan argued that Russia’s rearmament was a key factor in provoking war, especially after Russia’s defeat by Japan in 1905.
Russia’s revolution shifted foreign policy towards the Balkans to regain prestige, leading to the 1914 promise to support Serbia.
Russian policies, including the naval agreement with Britain, angered Germany, pushing them to support Austria-Hungary and escalate tensions.
Mulligan believes that the new Russian policies forced Germany to risk war before Russia became too strong.
A sensible conclusion is that Germany, Russia, and Austria-Hungary all share responsibility for the outbreak of warin 1914.